Both meetings in the group stage ended 1-0 to the away team, but we can envisage a reverse scoreline on Thursday, with Union Berlin likely to be able to keep their opponents at arms' length. The two managers deploy very similar formations with an emphasis on remaining compact out of possession, so it may not be a match for the purists to savour. However, the home fans will be roaring their team onto unprecedented success, with Union SG potentially having to settle for keeping the tie alive heading into the second leg. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 47.11%. A win for Union SG had a probability of 27.9% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.35%) and 2-0 (8.1%). The likeliest Union SG win was 0-1 (7.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.

Result
Union Berlin	Draw	Union SG
47.11% ( -0.93)	24.99% ( 0.27)	27.9% ( 0.67)

Both teams to score 54.33% (

-0.35)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.41% (

-0.69)

48.59% (

0.69)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.29% (

-0.63)

70.71% (

0.64)

Union Berlin Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.34% (

-0.67)

20.66% (

0.68)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.75% (

-1.08)

53.24% (

1.08)

Union SG Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.48% (

0.14)

31.52% (

-0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.09% (

0.16)

67.91% (

-0.16)

Score Analysis

Union Berlin 47.1%

Union SG 27.9%

Draw 24.98%

Union Berlin	Draw	Union SG
1-0 @ 10.26% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 9.35% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 8.1% ( -0.11) 3-1 @ 4.91% ( -0.15) 3-0 @ 4.26% ( -0.15) 3-2 @ 2.84% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 1.94% ( -0.1) 4-0 @ 1.68% ( -0.09) 4-2 @ 1.12% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.66% Total : 47.1%	1-1 @ 11.85% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 6.51% ( 0.18) 2-2 @ 5.4% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.98%	0-1 @ 7.52% ( 0.24) 1-2 @ 6.85% ( 0.11) 0-2 @ 4.34% ( 0.16) 1-3 @ 2.64% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 2.08% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.67% ( 0.07) Other @ 2.81% Total : 27.9%