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Europa League
Leverkusen logo
Europa League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 1st Leg
Feb 16, 2023 at 8pm UK
BayArena
Monaco

B. Leverkusen
2 - 3
Monaco

Diaby (48'), Wirtz (59')
Tapsoba (14'), Wirtz (50'), Adli (63')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Hradecky (9' og.), Diatta (74'), Disasi (90+2')
Camara (63'), Maripan (84'), Diatta (90+7')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Monaco, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions
Last Game: Hoffenheim 1-3 B. Leverkusen
Saturday, February 11 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Monaco

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Monaco 3-1 PSG
Saturday, February 11 at 4pm in Ligue 1

We said: Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 Monaco

 Monaco seem to come to life every season at the beginning of the calendar year, and their form domestically has been a lot more consistent when compared to their German counterparts this month. Leverkusen have been better at home in the Bundesliga of late but have not been quite as sharp against the elite teams in Germany, and there is not much evidence to suggest they can improve their poor form in Europe. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 48.81%. A win for Monaco had a probability of 26.58% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.49%) and 2-0 (8.36%). The likeliest Monaco win was 0-1 (7.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.

Result
Bayer LeverkusenDrawMonaco
48.81% (0.119 0.12) 24.62% (-0.0040000000000013 -0) 26.58% (-0.111 -0.11)
Both teams to score 54.5% (-0.079000000000001 -0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.11% (-0.057000000000002 -0.06)47.89% (0.059000000000005 0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.93% (-0.053000000000001 -0.05)70.07% (0.055999999999997 0.06)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.33% (0.025999999999996 0.03)19.67% (-0.023 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.35% (0.041000000000004 0.04)51.65% (-0.038999999999994 -0.04)
Monaco Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.84% (-0.119 -0.12)32.16% (0.12 0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.35% (-0.133 -0.13)68.65% (0.13500000000001 0.14)
Score Analysis
    Bayer Leverkusen 48.8%
    Monaco 26.58%
    Draw 24.61%
Bayer LeverkusenDrawMonaco
1-0 @ 10.28% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
2-1 @ 9.49% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
2-0 @ 8.36% (0.033000000000001 0.03)
3-1 @ 5.14% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
3-0 @ 4.53% (0.022 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.92% (-0.0050000000000003 -0.01)
4-1 @ 2.09% (0.0050000000000003 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.84% (0.01 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.19% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.95%
Total : 48.8%
1-1 @ 11.66%
0-0 @ 6.33% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
2-2 @ 5.38% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.1% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 24.61%
0-1 @ 7.18% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-2 @ 6.62% (-0.021999999999999 -0.02)
0-2 @ 4.07% (-0.016 -0.02)
1-3 @ 2.5% (-0.016 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.04% (-0.012 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.54% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 2.64%
Total : 26.58%

How you voted: B. Leverkusen vs Monaco

Bayer Leverkusen
34.6%
Draw
15.1%
Monaco
50.2%
205
Head to Head
Dec 7, 2016 7.45pm
Group E
B. Leverkusen
3-0
Monaco
Yurchenko (30'), Brandt (49'), De Sanctis (83' og.)
Dragovic (88')

Jemerson (24'), Boschilia (41'), Germain (88')
Sep 27, 2016 7.45pm
Group E
Monaco
1-1
B. Leverkusen
Glik (94')
Jemerson (50')
Hernandez (73')
Tah (19'), Toprak (50')
Nov 26, 2014 7.45pm
Group C
B. Leverkusen
0-1
Monaco
> Match Report
Sep 16, 2014 7.45pm
Group C
Monaco
1-0
B. Leverkusen
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
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