It might not be pretty, but Monaco always seem to find a way to make it beyond the group stage of these competitions, allowing a goal or fewer in their previous six matches played at Stade Louis II.
The Serbs have played well and perhaps deserved better at times in the group stage, but they have not been as creative or attack-minded in Europe as they are domestically.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 60.68%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Red Star Belgrade had a probability of 15.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.82%) and 2-1 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.92%), while for a Red Star Belgrade win it was 0-1 (6.46%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.
0.06) 
-0.04) 
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