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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 75.37%. A draw had a probability of 14.9% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 9.71%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.37%) and 2-1 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.9%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (2.92%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
Result | ||
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
75.37% ( 0.78) | 14.92% ( -0.11) | 9.71% ( -0.67) |
Both teams to score 52.98% ( -2.48) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
67.42% ( -1.72) | 32.57% ( 1.72) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
45.77% ( -2.02) | 54.23% ( 2.02) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
92.77% ( -0.23) | 7.23% ( 0.24) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
73.78% ( -0.62) | 26.22% ( 0.63) |
SBV Excelsior Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
57.11% ( -2.52) | 42.89% ( 2.52) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
20.8% ( -2.21) | 79.19% ( 2.21) |
Score Analysis |
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
2-0 @ 10.69% ( 0.7) 3-0 @ 9.37% ( 0.51) 2-1 @ 9.06% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.14% ( 0.64) 3-1 @ 7.93% ( -0.1) 4-0 @ 6.15% ( 0.26) 4-1 @ 5.21% ( -0.14) 3-2 @ 3.36% ( -0.29) 5-0 @ 3.23% ( 0.1) 5-1 @ 2.74% ( -0.11) 4-2 @ 2.21% ( -0.22) 6-0 @ 1.42% ( 0.03) 6-1 @ 1.2% ( -0.06) 5-2 @ 1.16% ( -0.13) Other @ 3.51% Total : 75.36% | 1-1 @ 6.9% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 3.83% ( -0.28) 0-0 @ 3.1% ( 0.28) 3-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.16) Other @ 0.15% Total : 14.92% | 1-2 @ 2.92% ( -0.17) 0-1 @ 2.63% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.16) Other @ 1.97% Total : 9.71% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 13 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 45 | 9 | 36 | 36 |
2 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 31 |
3 | Ajax | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 11 | 16 | 29 |
4 | Feyenoord | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 31 | 13 | 18 | 28 |
5 | FC Twente | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 25 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 15 | 10 | 20 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 18 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 17 |
9 | NECNijmegen | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 16 |
10 | Willem II | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 16 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 16 |
12 | Heerenveen | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 14 |
13 | Heracles | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 25 | -11 | 13 |
14 | PEC Zwolle | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 12 |
15 | Groningen | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 11 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 30 | -24 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 33 | -21 | 5 |
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