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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 74.7%. A draw had a probability of 15.6% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 9.73%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.67%) and 1-0 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.32%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 0-1 (2.92%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
Result | ||
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
74.7% ( 0.42) | 15.57% ( -0.25) | 9.73% ( -0.16) |
Both teams to score 50.39% ( 0.29) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
64.16% ( 0.71) | 35.83% ( -0.71) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
42.08% ( 0.78) | 57.91% ( -0.78) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.87% ( 0.26) | 8.13% ( -0.26) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
71.47% ( 0.65) | 28.52% ( -0.65) |
SBV Excelsior Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
54.85% ( 0.16) | 45.14% ( -0.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
18.95% ( 0.13) | 81.05% ( -0.13) |
Score Analysis |
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
2-0 @ 11.55% ( -0.12) 3-0 @ 9.67% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 9.21% ( -0.21) 2-1 @ 9.19% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 7.69% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 6.07% ( 0.09) 4-1 @ 4.83% ( 0.1) 3-2 @ 3.06% ( 0.04) 5-0 @ 3.05% ( 0.09) 5-1 @ 2.42% ( 0.08) 4-2 @ 1.92% ( 0.05) 6-0 @ 1.27% ( 0.05) 6-1 @ 1.01% ( 0.05) 5-2 @ 0.96% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.79% Total : 74.69% | 1-1 @ 7.32% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 3.67% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 3.66% ( -0) Other @ 0.92% Total : 15.57% | 0-1 @ 2.92% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 2.91% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 1.16% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 0.97% ( 0) Other @ 1.77% Total : 9.73% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 13 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 45 | 9 | 36 | 36 |
2 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 31 |
3 | Feyenoord | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 31 | 13 | 18 | 28 |
4 | Ajax | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 26 |
5 | FC Twente | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 25 |
6 | Go Ahead Eagles | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 18 |
7 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 17 |
9 | NECNijmegen | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 16 |
10 | Willem II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 15 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 15 |
12 | Heerenveen | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 14 |
13 | Heracles | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 25 | -11 | 13 |
14 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 |
15 | Groningen | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 30 | -24 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 33 | -21 | 5 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |