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AZ Alkmaar
Ajax
FC Twente logo
FC Utrecht
Feyenoord
Fortuna Sittard
Go Ahead Eagles
Groningen
Heerenveen
Heracles Almelo
NAC Breda
NEC
PEC Zwolle
PSV
Waalwijk logo
Sparta Rotterdam logo
Willem II
AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie | Gameweek 21
Feb 10, 2023 at 7pm UK
AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
Excelsior

AZ
5 - 0
Excelsior

Mijnans (20', 30'), Karlsson (27'), Odgaard (35'), Pavlidis (38')
FT(HT: 5-0)

Azarkan (14')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Eredivisie clash between AZ Alkmaar and SBV Excelsior, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: AZ 1-2 Utrecht
Tuesday, February 7 at 5.45pm in KNVB Beker
Last Game: Excelsior 0-0 RKC Waalwijk
Saturday, February 4 at 8pm in Eredivisie

We said: AZ Alkmaar 3-1 SBV Excelsior

Having now gone three games across all competitions without a victory, AZ will need to return to winning ways as soon as possible to avoid losing any more ground in the title race. We are tipping them to cruise to all three points at the sound of the final whistle here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 74.7%. A draw had a probability of 15.6% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 9.73%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.67%) and 1-0 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.32%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 0-1 (2.92%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.

Result
AZ AlkmaarDrawSBV Excelsior
74.7% (0.41699999999999 0.42) 15.57% (-0.252 -0.25) 9.73% (-0.1639 -0.16)
Both teams to score 50.39% (0.292 0.29)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.16% (0.714 0.71)35.83% (-0.713 -0.71)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.08% (0.781 0.78)57.91% (-0.78100000000001 -0.78)
AZ Alkmaar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
91.87% (0.26100000000001 0.26)8.13% (-0.261 -0.26)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
71.47% (0.652 0.65)28.52% (-0.652 -0.65)
SBV Excelsior Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
54.85% (0.163 0.16)45.14% (-0.163 -0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18.95% (0.128 0.13)81.05% (-0.129 -0.13)
Score Analysis
    AZ Alkmaar 74.69%
    SBV Excelsior 9.73%
    Draw 15.57%
AZ AlkmaarDrawSBV Excelsior
2-0 @ 11.55% (-0.12 -0.12)
3-0 @ 9.67% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
1-0 @ 9.21% (-0.21 -0.21)
2-1 @ 9.19% (-0.048999999999999 -0.05)
3-1 @ 7.69% (0.056 0.06)
4-0 @ 6.07% (0.093999999999999 0.09)
4-1 @ 4.83% (0.095999999999999 0.1)
3-2 @ 3.06% (0.036 0.04)
5-0 @ 3.05% (0.085 0.09)
5-1 @ 2.42% (0.078 0.08)
4-2 @ 1.92% (0.046 0.05)
6-0 @ 1.27% (0.051 0.05)
6-1 @ 1.01% (0.046 0.05)
5-2 @ 0.96% (0.035 0.03)
Other @ 2.79%
Total : 74.69%
1-1 @ 7.32% (-0.134 -0.13)
0-0 @ 3.67% (-0.132 -0.13)
2-2 @ 3.66% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.92%
Total : 15.57%
0-1 @ 2.92% (-0.091 -0.09)
1-2 @ 2.91% (-0.04 -0.04)
0-2 @ 1.16% (-0.031 -0.03)
2-3 @ 0.97% (0.004 0)
Other @ 1.77%
Total : 9.73%

How you voted: AZ vs Excelsior

AZ Alkmaar
90.4%
Draw
5.8%
SBV Excelsior
3.8%
52
Head to Head
Oct 23, 2022 11.15am
May 15, 2019 6.30pm
Excelsior
4-2
AZ
Fortes (21'), Van Rhijn (51' og.), Bruins (60' pen.), Omarsson (66')
Mattheij (41')
Koopmeiners (30'), Johnsen (70')
Gudmundsson (59')
Dec 15, 2018 6.45pm
AZ
2-1
Excelsior
Til (39'), Johnsen (94')
Ouwejan (57')
Mahmudov (30')
Fortes (75')
Mar 3, 2018 5.30pm
Excelsior
1-2
AZ
Messaoud (64')
Koolwijk (34'), Bruins (70')
Zwarthoed (19' og.), Jahanbakhsh (44')
Svensson (75')
Sep 24, 2017 3.45pm
AZ
0-2
Excelsior

Vlaar (8')
Bruins (2' pen., 8')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1PSV EindhovenPSV1312014593636
2FC UtrechtUtrecht12101122121031
3Feyenoord1384131131828
4Ajax1182125111426
5FC Twente1374226121425
6Go Ahead Eagles135351820-218
7AZ AlkmaarAZ125252314917
8Fortuna SittardSittard135261418-417
9NECNijmegen135172012816
10Willem II124351312115
11NAC BredaNAC Breda125071221-915
12Heerenveen134271326-1314
13Heracles133461425-1113
14PEC Zwolle123361422-812
15Groningen133371224-1212
16Sparta RotterdamSparta122551218-611
17Almere CityAlmere City13139630-246
18RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk1312101233-215


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