Eredivisie | Gameweek 21

Feb 10, 2023 at 7pm UK

AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar

AZ
5 - 0
Excelsior

Mijnans (20', 30'), Karlsson (27'), Odgaard (35'), Pavlidis (38')

FT(HT: 5-0)

Azarkan (14')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Eredivisie clash between AZ Alkmaar and SBV Excelsior, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: AZ 1-2 Utrecht
Tuesday, February 7 at 5.45pm in KNVB Beker

Goals
for

Top scorers

SBV Excelsior

All competitions

Last Game: Excelsior 0-0 RKC Waalwijk
Saturday, February 4 at 8pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

We said: AZ Alkmaar 3-1 SBV Excelsior

Having now gone three games across all competitions without a victory, AZ will need to return to winning ways as soon as possible to avoid losing any more ground in the title race. We are tipping them to cruise to all three points at the sound of the final whistle here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 74.7%. A draw had a probability of 15.6% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 9.73%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.67%) and 1-0 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.32%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 0-1 (2.92%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.

Result
AZ Alkmaar	Draw	SBV Excelsior
74.7% ( 0.42)	15.57% ( -0.25)	9.73% ( -0.16)

Both teams to score 50.39% (

0.29)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.16% (

0.71)

35.83% (

-0.71)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.08% (

0.78)

57.91% (

-0.78)

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.87% (

0.26)

8.13% (

-0.26)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

71.47% (

0.65)

28.52% (

-0.65)

SBV Excelsior Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.85% (

0.16)

45.14% (

-0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.95% (

0.13)

81.05% (

-0.13)

Score Analysis

AZ Alkmaar 74.69%

SBV Excelsior 9.73%

Draw 15.57%

AZ Alkmaar	Draw	SBV Excelsior
2-0 @ 11.55% ( -0.12) 3-0 @ 9.67% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 9.21% ( -0.21) 2-1 @ 9.19% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 7.69% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 6.07% ( 0.09) 4-1 @ 4.83% ( 0.1) 3-2 @ 3.06% ( 0.04) 5-0 @ 3.05% ( 0.09) 5-1 @ 2.42% ( 0.08) 4-2 @ 1.92% ( 0.05) 6-0 @ 1.27% ( 0.05) 6-1 @ 1.01% ( 0.05) 5-2 @ 0.96% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.79% Total : 74.69%	1-1 @ 7.32% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 3.67% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 3.66% ( -0) Other @ 0.92% Total : 15.57%	0-1 @ 2.92% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 2.91% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 1.16% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 0.97% ( 0) Other @ 1.77% Total : 9.73%