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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 69.55%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 12.45%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.5%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 0-1 (3.74%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-1 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for AZ Alkmaar.
Result | ||
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
69.55% ( -0.06) | 18% ( 0.22) | 12.45% ( -0.16) |
Both teams to score 51.22% ( -1.32) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
60.29% ( -1.47) | 39.71% ( 1.47) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.93% ( -1.55) | 62.07% ( 1.55) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.69% ( -0.41) | 10.31% ( 0.41) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
66.27% ( -0.94) | 33.73% ( 0.94) |
Fortuna Sittard Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
57.1% ( -1.21) | 42.89% ( 1.21) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
20.8% ( -1.04) | 79.2% ( 1.04) |
Score Analysis |
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
2-0 @ 11.41% ( 0.38) 1-0 @ 10.04% ( 0.5) 2-1 @ 9.66% ( 0) 3-0 @ 8.65% ( 0.14) 3-1 @ 7.32% ( -0.13) 4-0 @ 4.91% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 4.16% ( -0.15) 3-2 @ 3.1% ( -0.16) 5-0 @ 2.23% ( -0.04) 5-1 @ 1.89% ( -0.1) 4-2 @ 1.76% ( -0.12) Other @ 4.42% Total : 69.54% | 1-1 @ 8.5% ( 0.15) 0-0 @ 4.42% ( 0.3) 2-2 @ 4.09% ( -0.14) Other @ 0.99% Total : 18% | 0-1 @ 3.74% ( 0.13) 1-2 @ 3.6% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 1.58% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 1.02% ( -0.05) Other @ 1.35% Total : 12.45% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 13 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 45 | 9 | 36 | 36 |
2 | Feyenoord | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 31 | 13 | 18 | 28 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 28 |
4 | Ajax | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 26 |
5 | FC Twente | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 25 |
6 | Go Ahead Eagles | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 18 |
7 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 17 |
9 | NECNijmegen | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 16 |
10 | Willem II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 15 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 15 |
12 | Heerenveen | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 14 |
13 | Heracles | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 25 | -11 | 13 |
14 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 |
15 | Groningen | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 30 | -24 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 33 | -21 | 5 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |