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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sparta Rotterdam win with a probability of 59.89%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 18.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sparta Rotterdam win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.54%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.42%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 0-1 (5.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sparta Rotterdam would win this match.
Result | ||
Sparta Rotterdam | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
59.89% ( -0.32) | 21.95% ( 0.11) | 18.15% ( 0.21) |
Both teams to score 51.86% ( 0.06) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.07% ( -0.13) | 45.93% ( 0.13) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.76% ( -0.12) | 68.24% ( 0.12) |
Sparta Rotterdam Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.07% ( -0.14) | 14.92% ( 0.14) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
56.68% ( -0.27) | 43.31% ( 0.27) |
Fortuna Sittard Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.96% ( 0.17) | 39.04% ( -0.17) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.24% ( 0.16) | 75.76% ( -0.16) |
Score Analysis |
Sparta Rotterdam | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
1-0 @ 11.08% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 10.54% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 9.92% ( -0) 3-0 @ 6.68% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 6.29% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 3.18% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 2.99% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.96% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.41% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.21% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 1.14% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.51% Total : 59.89% | 1-1 @ 10.42% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 5.83% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 4.66% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 0.93% ( 0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 21.95% | 0-1 @ 5.48% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 4.9% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 2.58% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 1.54% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.46% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.19% Total : 18.15% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 17 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 59 | 13 | 46 | 45 |
2 | Ajax | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 37 | 16 | 21 | 39 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 36 |
4 | Feyenoord | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 35 |
5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 32 |
6 | FC Twente | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 31 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 25 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 25 |
9 | Willem II | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 22 |
10 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 17 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 22 |
11 | Heerenveen | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 31 | -14 | 21 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 17 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 17 |
14 | Groningen | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 16 |
15 | Heracles | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 14 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 12 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 17 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 37 | -27 | 9 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 17 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 7 |
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