Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 78.51%. A draw had a probability of 14% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 7.53%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.92%) and 1-0 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.62%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 0-1 (2.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
