Seeking to move out of the relegation zone, Fortuna Sittard take a trip to the AFAS Stadium to take on AZ Alkmaar in round 15 of the Eredivisie.
The hosts, meanwhile, head into the game on a run of three consecutive draws across all competitions and will be looking to snap this streak and move into the top half of the standings.
Match preview
© Reuters
AZ Alkmaar's poor start to the season continued last Sunday when they played out an uneventful goalless draw against Vitesse at the Gelredome Stadium.
In a drab contest where clear-cut chances were at a premium, both sides were guilty of lethargic displays in the final third as the game finished with just one shot on target shared between the sides.
Prior to that, De Kaaskoppen sealed their place in the knockout stages of the Conference League courtesy of a 1-1 draw with Czech Republic outfit Jablonec at the Stadion Strelnice.
Pascal Jansen's men have now failed to pick up a win in any of their most recent four games in all competitions, the second time they have failed to taste victory in four games this season.
It is worth noting that six of those eight games have come on the road, highlighting their struggle to perform in enemy territory, where they boast the Eredivisie's 12th-best record with seven points from eight games.
AZ Alkmaar, who secured an impressive third-placed finish last season, currently find themselves in the bottom half of the league standings as they sit in 12th place after managing just two wins from their opening 13 games.
However, next up for the two-time champions is an opposing side who they are unbeaten against in the last seven years, picking up six wins and one draw in that time, and they will feel confident about securing the desired results.
© Reuters
Having finished 11th in the league last campaign, signs of struggle this season were on show in Fortuna Sittard's curtain-raiser on August 14, when they came from behind to snatch an unconvincing 2-1 win over Twente.
Sjors Ultee's side would fail to win any of their subsequent six outings, picking up two draws and losing four before snapping the run with a slender 1-0 win over Cambuur two months later courtesy of George Cox's 86th-minute strike.
This was followed by a 1-1 draw away to Willem II Tilburg on October 22, before claiming an impressive 3-0 cup win over second-tier Top Oss a little under one week later.
However, this turnaround was short-lived as they lost their next four games on the bounce, with a 4-1 defeat at home against Groningen being the latest of their underwhelming results.
Having amassed just nine points from 13 games this season, Fortuna Sittard find themselves second but one in the Eredivisie table, only above PEC Zwolle.
This disappointing start to the season has been in no small part owing to their struggles at the defensive end of the pitch, where they boast the division's poorest record with 32 goals conceded.
- W
- L
- W
- L
- D
- D
- W
- W
- L
- D
- D
- D
- W
- D
- L
- L
- L
- L
- D
- W
- L
- L
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Norwegian youngster Hakon Evjen is out of contention after trudging off the pitch with an injury shortly after the hour mark in the Conference League draw with Jablonec last Thursday.
Despite failing to find the target in any of the last four games, Jesper Karlsson and Vangelis Pavlidis have been vital for AZ Alkmaar this season, boasting a combined 16 goal involvements in 13 games, and we expect the attacking duo to lead the line once again.
At the opposite end of the pitch, we expect to see former Stoke City man Bruno Martins Indi and Pantelis Chatzidiakos pair at the heart of the defence, shielding Peter Vindahl Jensen between the sticks.
Fortuna Sittard, on the other hand, remain without the services of Cape Verde forward Lisandro Semedo, who continues his long journey to full fitness after sustaining a severe injury while on international duty against Senegal back in June.
Thirty-one-year-old defender Roel Janssen will also play no part in the game as he serves the first of his three-game suspension after receiving his marching orders in the defeat against Groningen last time out.
AZ Alkmaar possible starting lineup:
Vindahl; Sugawara, Chatzidiakos, Martins Indi, Wijndal; Midtsjo, Clasie, Witry; Wit, Karlsson, Pavlidis
Fortuna Sittard possible starting lineup:
Osch; Tirpan, Angha, Lonwijk, Cox; Tekie, Rienstra; Noslin, Ferati, Seuntjens; Flemming
We say: AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard need to turn their fortunes around sooner rather than later after defeat against Groningen last time out left them languishing in the relegation zone. However, they have struggled for results against AZ Alkmaar in recent history and we are tipping the hosts to come away with all three points and heap more misery on their floundering visitors.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 78.51%. A draw had a probability of 14% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 7.53%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.92%) and 1-0 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.62%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 0-1 (2.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
