Given the stakes of Sunday's game, we anticipate a thrilling contest at the King Zwelithini Stadium with both nations having a go at each other for the title. Zambia are more experienced at the stage of the tournament, and while we expect Lesotho to put up a fight, we fancy them coming out with the win in normal time. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zambia win with a probability of 55.62%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Lesotho had a probability of 19.79%.

The most likely scoreline for a Zambia win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.96%) and 1-2 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.59%), while for a Lesotho win it was 1-0 (7.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Zambia in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Zambia.

Result
Lesotho	Draw	Zambia
19.79% ( 0.35)	24.59% ( -0.18)	55.62% ( -0.17)

Both teams to score 46.68% (

1.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.72% (

1.08)

54.27% (

-1.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.33% (

0.9)

75.67% (

-0.9)

Lesotho Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57.94% (

1.03)

42.06% (

-1.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.51% (

0.87)

78.48% (

-0.88)

Zambia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.56% (

0.35)

19.44% (

-0.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.72% (

0.57)

51.27% (

-0.58)

Score Analysis

Lesotho 19.79%

Zambia 55.61%

Draw 24.59%

Lesotho	Draw	Zambia
1-0 @ 7.08% ( -0.1) 2-1 @ 5.02% ( 0.13) 2-0 @ 3.07% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 1.45% ( 0.08) 3-2 @ 1.19% ( 0.08) Other @ 1.98% Total : 19.79%	1-1 @ 11.59% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 8.17% ( -0.35) 2-2 @ 4.11% ( 0.15) Other @ 0.71% Total : 24.59%	0-1 @ 13.39% ( -0.42) 0-2 @ 10.96% ( -0.22) 1-2 @ 9.5% ( 0.08) 0-3 @ 5.99% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 5.19% ( 0.1) 0-4 @ 2.45% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.25% ( 0.1) 1-4 @ 2.12% ( 0.06) 2-4 @ 0.92% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.84% Total : 55.61%