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Bundesliga | Gameweek 7
Oct 7, 2023 at 2.30pm UK
Signal-Iduna-Park
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Dortmund
4 - 2
Union Berlin

Fullkrug (7'), Schlotterbeck (49'), Brandt (54'), Ryerson (71')
Hummels (30')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Gosens (9'), Bonucci (31' pen.)
Gosens (64')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Dortmund 0-0 AC Milan
Wednesday, October 4 at 8pm in Champions League

Union Berlin

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Union Berlin 2-3 Braga
Tuesday, October 3 at 5.45pm in Champions League

We said: Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Union Berlin

 What we have here are two sides with completely contrasting forms. Dortmund's home record has been incredible for over a year now, and their record against this opponent adds to our confidence that they will secure another win here. Unfortunately for the visitors, if that is to be the case, it will equate to their seventh consecutive loss in all competitions. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 57.26%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 21.79% and a draw had a probability of 21%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.02%) and 1-0 (7.71%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 1-2 (5.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.37%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Borussia DortmundDrawUnion Berlin
57.26% (0.314 0.31) 20.95% (-0.048999999999999 -0.05) 21.79% (-0.266 -0.27)
Both teams to score 61.54% (-0.22300000000001 -0.22)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63.95% (-0.116 -0.12)36.04% (0.11499999999999 0.11)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
41.85% (-0.127 -0.13)58.14% (0.125 0.13)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.5% (0.052000000000007 0.05)12.5% (-0.053000000000001 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.51% (0.109 0.11)38.49% (-0.11 -0.11)
Union Berlin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.33% (-0.297 -0.3)29.66% (0.296 0.3)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.29% (-0.361 -0.36)65.71% (0.35899999999999 0.36)
Score Analysis
    Borussia Dortmund 57.26%
    Union Berlin 21.79%
    Draw 20.95%
Borussia DortmundDrawUnion Berlin
2-1 @ 9.74% (0.016 0.02)
2-0 @ 8.02% (0.079 0.08)
1-0 @ 7.71% (0.06 0.06)
3-1 @ 6.75% (0.024999999999999 0.02)
3-0 @ 5.56% (0.065 0.07)
3-2 @ 4.1% (-0.018 -0.02)
4-1 @ 3.51% (0.02 0.02)
4-0 @ 2.89% (0.04 0.04)
4-2 @ 2.13% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
5-1 @ 1.46% (0.011 0.01)
5-0 @ 1.2% (0.019 0.02)
Other @ 4.18%
Total : 57.26%
1-1 @ 9.37% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
2-2 @ 5.92% (-0.039 -0.04)
0-0 @ 3.71% (0.021 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.66% (-0.022 -0.02)
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 20.95%
1-2 @ 5.69% (-0.049 -0.05)
0-1 @ 4.51% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-2 @ 2.74% (-0.03 -0.03)
2-3 @ 2.4% (-0.036 -0.04)
1-3 @ 2.31% (-0.039 -0.04)
0-3 @ 1.11% (-0.021 -0.02)
Other @ 3.04%
Total : 21.79%

How you voted: Dortmund vs Union Berlin

Borussia Dortmund
83.0%
Draw
14.9%
Union Berlin
2.1%
47
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Behrens (61')
> Preview
Oct 16, 2022 4.30pm
Gameweek 10
Union Berlin
2-0
Dortmund
Haberer (8', 21')
> Preview
Feb 13, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 22
Union Berlin
0-3
Dortmund

Baumgartl (35'), Mohwald (76'), Knoche (90+2'), Schafer (90+5')
Reus (18', 25'), Guerreiro (71')
Brandt (39')
> Preview
Sep 19, 2021 4.30pm
Gameweek 5
Dortmund
4-2
Union Berlin
Guerreiro (10'), Braut Haaland (24', 83'), Friedrich (52' og.)
Hummels (50'), Witsel (57')
Kruse (57' pen.), Voglsammer (81')
Friedrich (15'), Giesselmann (50'), Ryerson (90+1')
> Preview
Apr 21, 2021 7.30pm
Gameweek 30
Dortmund
2-0
Union Berlin
Reus (27'), Guerreiro (88')
Bellingham (70'), Hummels (72')

Knoche (48')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern108203372626
2RB Leipzig106311551021
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1062226161020
4Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen104512116517
5Freiburg105231311217
6Union BerlinUnion Berlin1044298116
7Borussia DortmundDortmund105141818016
8Werder Bremen104331721-415
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach104241514114
10Mainz 05Mainz103431514113
11Stuttgart103431919013
12Wolfsburg103341918112
13Augsburg103341320-712
14Heidenheim103161315-210
15Hoffenheim102351319-69
16St Pauli10226712-58
17Holstein Kiel101271225-135
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum100281030-202
> Bundesliga Full Table


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