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Champions League header

Champions League
PSG logo
Champions League | Group Stage
Sep 19, 2023 at 8pm UK
Stade Municipal Georges Lefevre
Dortmund logo

PSG
2 - 0
Dortmund

Mbappe (49' pen.), Hakimi (58')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Schlotterbeck (66'), Can (67'), Ryerson (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Paris Saint-Germain and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Paris Saint-Germain

All competitions
Last Game: PSG 2-3 Nice
Friday, September 15 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions
Last Game: Freiburg 2-4 Dortmund
Saturday, September 16 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Paris Saint-Germain 2-2 Borussia Dortmund

 The Parc des Princes may have lost its fear factor in 2023, but PSG have still managed at least two goals in each of their last three contests, and a fired-up Mbappe can always be relied on to terrorise opposing defences. The anticipated returns of Ugarte and Marquinhos will also add a layer of steel to the Parisiens' XI, but Dortmund's in-form attackers should still have a glint in their eyes and can claim a point for their side in what promises to be a captivating clash. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 41.58%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 36.28% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.36%) and 3-1 (5.09%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (7.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.

Result
Paris Saint-GermainDrawBorussia Dortmund
41.58% (0.038000000000004 0.04) 22.13% (0.023 0.02) 36.28% (-0.060000000000002 -0.06)
Both teams to score 68.61% (-0.108 -0.11)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
68.45% (-0.13200000000001 -0.13)31.54% (0.132 0.13)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
46.97% (-0.156 -0.16)53.03% (0.157 0.16)
Paris Saint-Germain Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.95% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)16.05% (0.042999999999999 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.59% (-0.076000000000001 -0.08)45.41% (0.076000000000001 0.08)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.73% (-0.086999999999989 -0.09)18.27% (0.085999999999999 0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.67% (-0.146 -0.15)49.33% (0.14700000000001 0.15)
Score Analysis
    Paris Saint-Germain 41.58%
    Borussia Dortmund 36.28%
    Draw 22.13%
Paris Saint-GermainDrawBorussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 8.34% (0.014000000000001 0.01)
1-0 @ 5.36% (0.031 0.03)
3-1 @ 5.09% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 4.91% (0.022 0.02)
3-2 @ 4.32% (-0.011 -0.01)
3-0 @ 2.99% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
4-1 @ 2.33% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-2 @ 1.98% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.37% (0.0029999999999999 0)
4-3 @ 1.12% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 3.77%
Total : 41.58%
1-1 @ 9.12% (0.028 0.03)
2-2 @ 7.09% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-0 @ 2.93% (0.021 0.02)
3-3 @ 2.45% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 0.54%
Total : 22.13%
1-2 @ 7.75% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-1 @ 4.98% (0.022 0.02)
1-3 @ 4.39% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
0-2 @ 4.24% (0.008 0.01)
2-3 @ 4.02% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
0-3 @ 2.4% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
1-4 @ 1.87% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-4 @ 1.71% (-0.012 -0.01)
3-4 @ 1.04% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
0-4 @ 1.02% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.87%
Total : 36.28%

How you voted: PSG vs Dortmund

Paris Saint-Germain
48.0%
Draw
28.0%
Borussia Dortmund
24.0%
254
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