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Champions League header

Champions League
Dortmund logo
Champions League | Group Stage
Oct 4, 2023 at 8pm UK
Signal-Iduna-Park
Milan logo

Dortmund
0 - 0
AC Milan


Schlotterbeck (19'), Can (25'), Hummels (81')
FT

Reijnders (23'), Musah (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Borussia Dortmund and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions
Champions League
Last Game: Hoffenheim 1-3 Dortmund
Friday, September 29 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

AC Milan

All competitions
Champions League
Last Game: AC Milan 2-0 Lazio
Saturday, September 30 at 5pm in Serie A

We said: Borussia Dortmund 1-0 AC Milan

 Unbeaten on home soil since August 2022, Dortmund can prolong their hot streak at Signal Iduna Park against a depleted Milan team, whose midfield options are severely limited at the minute. The Rossoneri already struggle for prolific attacking displays in the Champions League, and while making the net ripple domestically is never normally an issue for Pioli's team, their powers should wane against a Dortmund side who possess plenty of defensive wherewithal in front of the home crowd. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 49.7%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 27.64% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.64%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 1-2 (6.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.

Result
Borussia DortmundDrawAC Milan
49.7% (-0.246 -0.25) 22.66% (0.191 0.19) 27.64% (0.055999999999997 0.06)
Both teams to score 62.16% (-0.65000000000001 -0.65)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.81% (-0.874 -0.87)38.19% (0.875 0.88)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.53% (-0.93600000000001 -0.94)60.46% (0.938 0.94)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.36% (-0.404 -0.4)15.63% (0.406 0.41)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.35% (-0.75700000000001 -0.76)44.65% (0.758 0.76)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.68% (-0.41500000000001 -0.42)26.32% (0.415 0.41)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.54% (-0.557 -0.56)61.45% (0.557 0.56)
Score Analysis
    Borussia Dortmund 49.7%
    AC Milan 27.64%
    Draw 22.65%
Borussia DortmundDrawAC Milan
2-1 @ 9.46% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
1-0 @ 7.64% (0.212 0.21)
2-0 @ 7.09% (0.098 0.1)
3-1 @ 5.85% (-0.07 -0.07)
3-0 @ 4.38%
3-2 @ 3.9% (-0.094 -0.09)
4-1 @ 2.71% (-0.071 -0.07)
4-0 @ 2.03% (-0.029 -0.03)
4-2 @ 1.81% (-0.07 -0.07)
5-1 @ 1.01% (-0.041 -0.04)
Other @ 3.82%
Total : 49.7%
1-1 @ 10.19% (0.17 0.17)
2-2 @ 6.31% (-0.061 -0.06)
0-0 @ 4.12% (0.17 0.17)
3-3 @ 1.74% (-0.063 -0.06)
Other @ 0.3%
Total : 22.65%
1-2 @ 6.8% (0.03 0.03)
0-1 @ 5.49% (0.164 0.16)
0-2 @ 3.67% (0.067 0.07)
1-3 @ 3.03% (-0.022 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.81% (-0.061 -0.06)
0-3 @ 1.63% (0.011 0.01)
1-4 @ 1.01% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-4 @ 0.94% (-0.032 -0.03)
Other @ 2.27%
Total : 27.64%

How you voted: Dortmund vs AC Milan

Borussia Dortmund
49.6%
Draw
22.7%
AC Milan
27.7%
256
Head to Head
Jul 18, 2017 12.20pm
Pre-season Friendlies
AC Milan
1-3
Dortmund
Bacca (24')
Bacca (26')
Sahin (16'), Aubameyang (20' pen., 62')
Papastathopoulos (60')
> Match Report
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> Premier League Full Table


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