Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 3

Sep 1, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Roma
1 - 2
AC Milan

Spinazzola (90+2')
Paredes (69'), Lukaku (85')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Giroud (9' pen.), Leao (48')
Tomori (19'), Loftus-Cheek (34'), Okafor (90+7')
Tomori (61')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Serie A clash between Roma and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Roma

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Hellas Verona 2-1 Roma
Saturday, August 26 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

AC Milan

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: AC Milan 4-1 Torino
Saturday, August 26 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Roma have found the net in 20 of their previous 21 home matches, while there have been three or more goals in nine of their last 10, and if they can get Lukaku on the pitch at any point, that will also heighten their goal threat. However, despite winning only three of their final 14 away games last season, Milan have started brilliantly and have not lost to Roma since October 2019, winning four and drawing three in the seven meetings since. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 42.55%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 29.36% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.38%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 0-1 (10.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for AC Milan in this match.

Result
Roma	Draw	AC Milan
42.55% ( 0.02)	28.09% ( -0.01)	29.36% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 46% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.24% (

0.02)

59.76% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.94% (

0.01)

80.06% (

-0.01)

Roma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.21% (

0.02)

27.78% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.63% (

0.02)

63.36% (

-0.02)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.69%

36.3% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.91%

73.09% (

Score Analysis

Roma 42.54%

AC Milan 29.36%

Draw 28.07%

Roma	Draw	AC Milan
1-0 @ 12.91% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.38% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.27% ( 0) 3-1 @ 3.58% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.53% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.81% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.15% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.13% ( 0) Other @ 1.78% Total : 42.54%	1-1 @ 13.08% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 10.08% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.25% ( 0) Other @ 0.67% Total : 28.07%	0-1 @ 10.22% 1-2 @ 6.63% ( -0) 0-2 @ 5.18% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.24% 0-3 @ 1.75% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.43% Other @ 1.91% Total : 29.36%