Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 20

Jan 6, 2022 at 5.30pm UK

San Siro

AC Milan
3 - 1
Roma

Giroud (8' pen.), Messias (17'), Leao (81')
Hernandez (44'), Krunic (56')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Abraham (40')
Abraham (7'), Zaniolo (18'), Karsdorp (44'), Mancini (84')
Karsdorp (74'), Mancini (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Roma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Milan average over two goals per game in the league this term, and have a number of their attacking stars back in action for Serie A's resumption. They can, therefore, take advantage of the defensive flaws that undermine Roma outside of the capital and cope with some important absentees; starting 2022 with a morale-boosting win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 47.64%. A win for Roma had a probability of 28.73% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.47%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Roma win was 1-2 (7.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
AC Milan	Draw	Roma
47.64%	23.63%	28.73%

Both teams to score 59.53%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.97%

42.04%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.56%

64.44%

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.16%

17.85%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.4%

48.61%

Roma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.46%

27.54%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.94%

63.06%

Score Analysis

AC Milan 47.64%

Roma 28.73%

Draw 23.63%

AC Milan	Draw	Roma
2-1 @ 9.41% 1-0 @ 8.47% 2-0 @ 7.3% 3-1 @ 5.41% 3-0 @ 4.19% 3-2 @ 3.49% 4-1 @ 2.33% 4-0 @ 1.81% 4-2 @ 1.5% Other @ 3.73% Total : 47.64%	1-1 @ 10.92% 2-2 @ 6.07% 0-0 @ 4.92% 3-3 @ 1.5% Other @ 0.23% Total : 23.63%	1-2 @ 7.04% 0-1 @ 6.34% 0-2 @ 4.09% 1-3 @ 3.03% 2-3 @ 2.61% 0-3 @ 1.76% 1-4 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.9% Total : 28.73%