UEFA Conference League

Europa Conference League | Group Stage

Dec 9, 2021 at 5.45pm UK

Balgarska Armia Stadium

CSKA Sofia
2 - 3
Roma

Catakovic (75'), Wildschut (90+3')
Vion (45'), Geferson (71')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Abraham (15', 53'), Mayoral (34')
Bove (24'), Mancini (32'), Kumbulla (61')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between CSKA Sofia and Roma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Looking to avoid two extra games next year, Mourinho and his squad will want to put on a performance in Bulgaria. While there will inevitably be some changes, we still expect a strong performance and comfortable win for the Italian outfit. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 43.79%. A win for CSKA Sofia had a probability of 34.5% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.4%) and 0-1 (5.13%). The likeliest CSKA Sofia win was 2-1 (7.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.

Result
CSKA Sofia	Draw	Roma
34.5%	21.71%	43.79%

Both teams to score 69.83%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

70.2%

29.8%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

49.05%

50.95%

CSKA Sofia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.7%

18.3%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.62%

49.38%

Roma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.47%

14.53%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.44%

42.56%

Score Analysis

CSKA Sofia 34.5%

Roma 43.79%

Draw 21.71%

CSKA Sofia	Draw	Roma
2-1 @ 7.4% 1-0 @ 4.52% 3-1 @ 4.19% 3-2 @ 4.04% 2-0 @ 3.84% 3-0 @ 2.17% 4-1 @ 1.78% 4-2 @ 1.72% 4-3 @ 1.1% 4-0 @ 0.92% Other @ 2.84% Total : 34.5%	1-1 @ 8.71% 2-2 @ 7.13% 0-0 @ 2.66% 3-3 @ 2.6% Other @ 0.61% Total : 21.71%	1-2 @ 8.4% 1-3 @ 5.4% 0-1 @ 5.13% 0-2 @ 4.95% 2-3 @ 4.59% 0-3 @ 3.18% 1-4 @ 2.61% 2-4 @ 2.21% 0-4 @ 1.53% 3-4 @ 1.25% 1-5 @ 1.01% Other @ 3.53% Total : 43.79%