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Serie A
Roma logo
Serie A | Gameweek 38
Jun 4, 2023 at 8pm UK
Stadio Olimpico
Spezia Calcio logo

Roma
2 - 1
Spezia

Zalewski (43'), Dybala (90+1' pen.)
Pellegrini (44'), Dybala (78')
Foti (15')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Nikolaou (6')
Esposito (14'), Nikolaou (58'), Zoet (66'), Amian (76'), Semplici (79+79'), Gyasi (86'), Wisniewski (90+7'), Shomurodov (90+12')
Amian (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Roma and Spezia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Roma

All competitions
Serie A
Last Game: Sevilla 1-1 Roma (4-1 pen.)
Wednesday, May 31 at 8pm in Europa League

Spezia

All competitions
Last Game: Spezia 0-4 Torino
Saturday, May 27 at 2pm in Serie A

We said: Roma 2-1 Spezia

 Despite Roma's heartache in midweek, Mourinho should be able to get his players motivated for one last push in what could be his late game in charge. Spezia's form has been woeful in 2023, and they are lucky that Verona's has been similarly poor, with a relegation playout looking likely. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 65.91%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 13.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.11%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.63%), while for a Spezia win it was 0-1 (4.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Roma in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Roma.

Result
RomaDrawSpezia
65.91% (0.33499999999999 0.33) 20.27% (-0.093 -0.09) 13.82% (-0.25 -0.25)
Both teams to score 47.55% (-0.357 -0.36)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.34% (-0.133 -0.13)46.65% (0.123 0.12)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.08% (-0.125 -0.13)68.92% (0.116 0.12)
Roma Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.69% (0.054000000000002 0.05)13.3% (-0.062000000000001 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.86% (0.11799999999999 0.12)40.14% (-0.125 -0.13)
Spezia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
54.85% (-0.449 -0.45)45.15% (0.44 0.44)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18.94% (-0.36 -0.36)81.05% (0.352 0.35)
Score Analysis
    Roma 65.91%
    Spezia 13.82%
    Draw 20.27%
RomaDrawSpezia
2-0 @ 12.22% (0.12 0.12)
1-0 @ 12.11% (0.09 0.09)
2-1 @ 9.72% (-0.023999999999999 -0.02)
3-0 @ 8.22% (0.099 0.1)
3-1 @ 6.53% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-0 @ 4.14% (0.059 0.06)
4-1 @ 3.3% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.6% (-0.032 -0.03)
5-0 @ 1.67% (0.028 0.03)
5-1 @ 1.33% (0.0049999999999999 0)
4-2 @ 1.31% (-0.014 -0.01)
Other @ 2.76%
Total : 65.91%
1-1 @ 9.63% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05)
0-0 @ 6.01% (0.031000000000001 0.03)
2-2 @ 3.86% (-0.058 -0.06)
Other @ 0.76%
Total : 20.27%
0-1 @ 4.78% (-0.034 -0.03)
1-2 @ 3.83% (-0.066 -0.07)
0-2 @ 1.9% (-0.037 -0.04)
2-3 @ 1.02% (-0.028 -0.03)
1-3 @ 1.02% (-0.031 -0.03)
Other @ 1.27%
Total : 13.82%

How you voted: Roma vs Spezia

Roma
74.0%
Draw
16.9%
Spezia
9.1%
77
Head to Head
Jan 22, 2023 5pm
gameweek 19
Spezia
0-2
Roma
El Shaarawy (45'), Abraham (49')
Feb 27, 2022 5.05pm
gameweek 27
Spezia
0-1
Roma

Agudelo (30'), Amian (39'), Kiwior (86'), Maggiore (90+7')
Amian (45')
Abraham (90+9' pen.)
Mancini (45+3'), Kumbulla (64'), Zaniolo (90+5')
Dec 13, 2021 7.45pm
gameweek 17
Roma
2-0
Spezia
Smalling (6'), Ibanez (56')
Vina (54'), Kumbulla (65'), Afena-Gyan (70')
Afena-Gyan (90+3')

Gyasi (90+2')
May 23, 2021 7.45pm
gameweek 38
Spezia
2-2
Roma
Verde (6'), Pobega (38')
El Shaarawy (52'), Mkhitaryan (85')
Kumbulla (90+4')
Jan 23, 2021 2pm
gameweek 19
Roma
4-3
Spezia
Mayoral (17', 52'), Karsdorp (55'), Pellegrini (90+2')
Peres (87'), Mayoral (87'), Pellegrini (90+3')
Piccoli (24'), Farias (59'), Verde (90')
Chabot (21')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Napoli128221991026
2Atalanta BCAtalanta1281331151625
3Fiorentina1274125101525
4Inter Milan1274126141225
5Lazio1281325141125
6Juventus126602171424
7AC Milan115332014618
8Bologna114611513218
9Udinese125161518-316
10Empoli12363910-115
11Torino124261518-314
12Roma123451417-313
13Parma122641618-212
14Hellas VeronaHellas Verona124081727-1012
15Como122461323-1010
16CagliariCagliari122461222-1010
17Genoa12246922-1310
18Lecce12237521-169
19Monza121561015-58
20VeneziaVenezia122281121-108
> Serie A Full Table


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