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Bundesliga
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Bundesliga | Gameweek 1
Aug 20, 2023 at 2.30pm UK
Stadion An der Alten Forsterei
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Union Berlin
4 - 1
Mainz

Behrens (1', 9', 70'), Pantovic (90+6')
Behrens (10')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Caci (64')
Jae-sung (31'), Kohr (51'), da Costa (58'), Barreiro (79'), van den Berg (90+1'), Svensson (90+90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Union Berlin and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Union Berlin

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Astoria Walldorf 0-4 Union Berlin
Sunday, August 13 at 5pm in DFB-Pokal

Mainz 05

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Elversberg 0-1 Mainz
Saturday, August 12 at 5pm in DFB-Pokal

We said: Union Berlin 2-1 Mainz 05

 Having made some impressive signings during the summer transfer window, in contrast to Mainz who may start with no debutants, Union Berlin will sense an excellent opportunity to build momentum from the outset on Sunday. Mainz have established themselves as a solid mid-table side under Svensson, but they may be lacking a little quality and belief to gain a result at a potentially rocking Stadion An der Alten Forsterei. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 50.29%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 24.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 2-0 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.83%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 0-1 (7.37%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.

Result
Union BerlinDrawMainz 05
50.29% (1.172 1.17) 24.89% (0.062000000000001 0.06) 24.82% (-1.232 -1.23)
Both teams to score 52% (-1.354 -1.35)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.6% (-1.225 -1.23)50.39% (1.226 1.23)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.67% (-1.095 -1.1)72.33% (1.097 1.1)
Union Berlin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.95%20.05% (0.0019999999999989 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.73% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)52.26% (0.0049999999999955 0)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.04% (-1.692 -1.69)34.96% (1.695 1.7)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.3% (-1.82 -1.82)71.7% (1.821 1.82)
Score Analysis
    Union Berlin 50.29%
    Mainz 05 24.82%
    Draw 24.88%
Union BerlinDrawMainz 05
1-0 @ 11.26% (0.55 0.55)
2-1 @ 9.51% (0.033000000000001 0.03)
2-0 @ 9.05% (0.438 0.44)
3-1 @ 5.1% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
3-0 @ 4.85% (0.235 0.23)
3-2 @ 2.68% (-0.117 -0.12)
4-1 @ 2.05% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.95% (0.094 0.09)
4-2 @ 1.08% (-0.047 -0.05)
Other @ 2.77%
Total : 50.29%
1-1 @ 11.83% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
0-0 @ 7.01% (0.34 0.34)
2-2 @ 5% (-0.218 -0.22)
3-3 @ 0.94% (-0.088 -0.09)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 24.88%
0-1 @ 7.37% (0.026999999999999 0.03)
1-2 @ 6.22% (-0.271 -0.27)
0-2 @ 3.87% (-0.168 -0.17)
1-3 @ 2.18% (-0.202 -0.2)
2-3 @ 1.75% (-0.163 -0.16)
0-3 @ 1.36% (-0.126 -0.13)
Other @ 2.08%
Total : 24.82%

How you voted: Union Berlin vs Mainz

Union Berlin
86.8%
Draw
7.9%
Mainz 05
5.3%
38
Head to Head
Feb 4, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 19
Union Berlin
2-1
Mainz
Behrens (32'), Siebatcheu (84')
Ingvartsen (79' pen.)
> Preview
Aug 14, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 2
Mainz
0-0
Union Berlin
Onisiwo (5')
> Preview
Feb 26, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 24
Union Berlin
3-1
Mainz
Haraguchi (8'), Becker (56'), Awoniyi (75')
Trimmel (42'), Jaeckel (67'), Baumgartl (90+2'), Khedira (90+2')
Burgzorg (90')
Svensson (12'), Hack (18'), Kohr (58'), Stoger (90+2')
Kohr (60')
> Preview
Oct 3, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 7
Mainz
1-2
Union Berlin
Ingvartsen (39')
Kohr (75')
Kohr (90+2')
Awoniyi (69', 73')
Haraguchi (45+2'), Knoche (65'), Promel (79'), Kruse (82')
> Preview
Feb 6, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 20
Mainz
1-0
Union Berlin
Niakhate (22' pen.)
Kohr (28'), Barreiro (40')

Schlotterbeck (21'), Teuchert (33'), Knoche (60'), Trimmel (67')
Schlotterbeck (55')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern108203372626
2RB Leipzig106311551021
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1062226161020
4Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen104512116517
5Freiburg105231311217
6Union BerlinUnion Berlin1044298116
7Borussia DortmundDortmund105141818016
8Werder Bremen104331721-415
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach104241514114
10Mainz 05Mainz103431514113
11Stuttgart103431919013
12Wolfsburg103341918112
13Augsburg103341320-712
14Heidenheim103161315-210
15Hoffenheim102351319-69
16St Pauli10226712-58
17Holstein Kiel101271225-135
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum100281030-202
> Bundesliga Full Table


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