Bundesliga | Gameweek 24
Feb 26, 2022 at 2.30pm UK
Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Union Berlin3 - 1Mainz 05
We said: Union Berlin 1-1 Mainz 05
Union have to stop the rot some time, and despite Mainz's recent upturn in fortunes, their visitors tend not to travel too well. Never a high-scoring side at the best of times, goals have entirely dried up for the Eisernen, but they can surely end their month-long drought on Saturday. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 38.78%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 34.31% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.32%) and 2-0 (6.89%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 0-1 (9.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Union Berlin | Draw | Mainz 05 |
| 38.78% | 26.91% | 34.31% |
| Both teams to score 51.02% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
