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Bundesliga | Gameweek 23
Feb 18, 2022 at 7.30pm UK
Coface Arena
Leverkusen logo

Mainz 05
3 - 2
B. Leverkusen

Caricol (57'), Boetius (84'), Ingvartsen (88')
Caricol (66'), Ingvartsen (90+5')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Schick (35'), Alario (74')
Adli (31'), Demirbay (56')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

We said: Mainz 05 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen

Whilst Mainz have been very impressive this season, and appear to have rediscovered some form in February, a rampant Bayer side will surely prove too much for them. The visitors do not have the strongest defence in the league so we can see Mainz getting on the scoreboard, but it will likely be two or three for Leverkusen. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 38.62%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 36.45% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.28%) and 0-2 (6.04%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (8.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.

Result
Mainz 05DrawBayer Leverkusen
36.45%24.92%38.62%
Both teams to score 58%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.67%45.33%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.33%67.67%
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.58%24.41%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.16%58.83%
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.74%23.26%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.81%57.18%
Score Analysis
    Mainz 05 36.45%
    Bayer Leverkusen 38.62%
    Draw 24.92%
Mainz 05DrawBayer Leverkusen
2-1 @ 8.23%
1-0 @ 8.01%
2-0 @ 5.65%
3-1 @ 3.87%
3-2 @ 2.82%
3-0 @ 2.65%
4-1 @ 1.36%
4-2 @ 1%
4-0 @ 0.94%
Other @ 1.93%
Total : 36.45%
1-1 @ 11.67%
2-2 @ 6%
0-0 @ 5.68%
3-3 @ 1.37%
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 24.92%
1-2 @ 8.52%
0-1 @ 8.28%
0-2 @ 6.04%
1-3 @ 4.14%
0-3 @ 2.94%
2-3 @ 2.92%
1-4 @ 1.51%
0-4 @ 1.07%
2-4 @ 1.06%
Other @ 2.15%
Total : 38.62%

How you voted: Mainz 05 vs B. Leverkusen

Mainz 05
11.0%
Draw
9.8%
Bayer Leverkusen
79.1%
163
Head to Head
Sep 25, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 6
B. Leverkusen
1-0
Mainz
Wirtz (62')
Tah (11'), Diaby (44'), Bakker (83'), Alario (90+3')

Lucoqui (44'), Stach (69'), Jae-sung (86')
Feb 13, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 21
B. Leverkusen
2-2
Mainz
Alario (14'), Schick (84')
Tah (3'), Wendell (13'), Tapsoba (67'), Schick (68'), Fosu-Mensah (82')
Glatzel (89'), Stoger (90+2')
Stoger (90+4')
Oct 17, 2020 2.30pm
Gameweek 4
Mainz
0-1
B. Leverkusen

Latza (75'), Fernandes (85'), Ji (86')
Alario (30')
Bender (57')
Jun 27, 2020 2.30pm
Dec 21, 2019 2.30pm
Gameweek 17
Mainz
0-1
B. Leverkusen
Alario (93')
Wendell (58')
Wendell (71')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern108203372626
2RB Leipzig106311551021
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1062226161020
4Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen104512116517
5Freiburg105231311217
6Union BerlinUnion Berlin1044298116
7Borussia DortmundDortmund105141818016
8Werder Bremen104331721-415
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach104241514114
10Mainz 05Mainz103431514113
11Stuttgart103431919013
12Wolfsburg103341918112
13Augsburg103341320-712
14Heidenheim103161315-210
15Hoffenheim102351319-69
16St Pauli10226712-58
17Holstein Kiel101271225-135
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum100281030-202


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