Borussia Dortmund will be hoping not to slip further behind in the Bundesliga title race when they travel to the capital to face Union Berlin on Sunday afternoon.
The visitors saw their challenge all but end following a humiliating defeat last weekend, whilst the hosts remain inside the Champions League places despite losing themselves.
Match preview
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Union unexpectedly suffered their first defeat of 2022 when they travelled to relegation-threatened Augsburg last weekend.
Michael Gregoritsch and Andre Hahn netted the goals for their opponents in either half, in what was an open and entertaining game of football at the WWK Arena.
Boss Urs Fischer will have been disappointed in his side's inability to convert their glorious opportunities into goals on the day, whilst also being surprised by his side's lack of usual defensive organisation that led to them conceding twice to a side struggling desperately near the foot of the table.
Despite the result, Die Eisernen retained fourth spot on matchday 21, although with just four points separating them from Mainz 05 in 10th at the time of writing, Union could find themselves much further down the table by the time kick off comes around at the An der Alten Forsterei on Sunday.
In order to return to the kind of form that saw Fischer's side win four and draw two in the six games prior to last weekend's defeat, Union must find a way to cope without Marvin Friedrich and Max Kruse, who left for Borussia Monchengladbach and Wolfsburg respectively during the January transfer window.
Although, with just a single Bundesliga defeat being suffered in front of their own supporters since the opening day of the 2020-21 campaign, which came against leaders Bayern Munich back in October, Union will be confident in picking up a positive result against their title-challenging opponents at the weekend.
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As mentioned above, Dortmund's catastrophic 5-2 defeat at home to Bayer Leverkusen at Signal Iduna Park last Sunday all but ended their hopes of catching Bayern at the summit of the Bundesliga.
Coupled with Bayern's 3-2 victory over RB Leipzig earlier in matchday 21, the loss saw Marco Rose's side fall nine points off the pace at the summit.
An own goal from Jeremie Frimpong had initially brought BVB level in the first half after falling behind early on, but a shocking defensive performance saw them ship four further goals before Steffen Tigges netted a late consolation for the hosts on the day.
The absence of talisman Erling Braut Haaland from the side was not ideal, but Rose would have expected a much better performance from his side considering the importance of the fixture.
Now Rose must somehow raise the spirits of his players ahead of a difficult trip on matchday 22, at a venue where they have lost on their two competitive visits across the 2019-20 and 2020-21 campaigns.
With Bayern likely to extend their lead at the top to 12 points in their trip to relegation-threatened VfL Bochum on Saturday, Dortmund's focus must now switch to strengthening their hold on a top-two finish come May, with third-placed Leverkusen now only five points behind, and fifth-placed Freiburg within 10 points of the Black and Yellows.
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Team News
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Union will have to cope without Rani Khedira in the centre of midfield on Sunday, with the 28-year-old serving a one-match suspension following his fifth yellow card of the season last weekend.
Grischa Promel is likely to deputise following his return to fitness, with the duo of Julian Ryerson and Pawel Wszolek being the only other absentees due to COVID-19.
No other changes are expected to the starting 11 though, meaning Taiwo Awoniyi will be joined by Andreas Voglsammer in attack once more following the recent departure of Kruse.
As for the visitors, Dortmund could be set to welcome back Haaland to their squad on Sunday, with the Norwegian striker returning to training following his groin injury.
He is likely to be thrust straight into the starting 11 due to his importance, meaning the only players missing look to be the long-term absentee duo of Mateu Morey and Marcel Schmelzer, with the latter nearing a return.
Giovanni Reyna made his return from a five-month injury absence with a substitute appearance against Leverkusen last weekend, but he is unlikely to start just yet.
Mats Hummels was only fit enough for the bench for the defeat, but he is expected to come back in to their leaky defence at the expense of Dan-Axel Zagadou.
Union Berlin possible starting lineup:
Luthe; Baumgartl, Knoche, Heintz; Trimmel, Becker, Promel, Haraguchi, Giesselmann; Awoniyi, Voglsammer
Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Kobel; Meunier, Akanji, Hummels, Guerreiro; Brandt, Dahoud, Bellingham; Reus, Haaland, Malen
We say: Union Berlin 2-2 Borussia Dortmund
With Union's incredible home record being coupled with Dortmund's dampened spirits following last weekend's heavy defeat, we believe the hosts will come out with at least a point from this game.
They too will be hurt following a setback, so we are predicting a share of the points in a high-scoring encounter thanks to the return of Haaland and the visitors' defensive woes.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 48.17%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 28.32% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.45%) and 0-2 (7.36%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 2-1 (6.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.85%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
