MX23RW : Wednesday, December 25 11:13:16| >> :120:10553:10553:
Sweden national football team
Women's World Cup | Group Stage
Jul 29, 2023 at 8.30am UK
Westpac Stadium

Sweden Women
5 - 0
Italy Women

Ilestedt (39', 50'), Rolfo (44'), Blackstenius (45+1'), Blomqvist (90+5')
FT(HT: 3-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Women's World Cup clash between Sweden Women and Italy Women, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sweden Women

All competitions
Women's World Cup
Last Game: Sweden Women 2-1 S. Africa Women
Sunday, July 23 at 6am in Women's World Cup

Italy Women

All competitions
Women's World Cup
Last Game: Italy Women 1-0 Argentina Women
Monday, July 24 at 7am in Women's World Cup

We said: Sweden Women 2-1 Italy Women

 Although the Italians are enjoying a five-game unbeaten run, Sweden Women currently sit 13 places higher than their opponents in the FIFA World Rankings, and we think that they will utilise their extra quality to claim a narrow victory on Saturday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sweden Women win with a probability of 63.29%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Italy Women had a probability of 15.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sweden Women win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.93%) and 2-1 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.17%), while for a Italy Women win it was 0-1 (5.3%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sweden Women would win this match.

Result
Sweden WomenDrawItaly Women
63.29% (0.076999999999998 0.08) 21.41% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04) 15.3% (-0.032999999999999 -0.03)
Both teams to score 47.64% (0.058 0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.5% (0.119 0.12)48.5% (-0.119 -0.12)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.37% (0.11 0.11)70.63% (-0.10899999999999 -0.11)
Sweden Women Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.31% (0.063000000000002 0.06)14.69% (-0.063000000000001 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.13% (0.123 0.12)42.86% (-0.122 -0.12)
Italy Women Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.84% (0.028999999999996 0.03)44.16% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.75% (0.023 0.02)80.25% (-0.022000000000006 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Sweden Women 63.29%
    Italy Women 15.3%
    Draw 21.41%
Sweden WomenDrawItaly Women
1-0 @ 12.44% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
2-0 @ 11.93%
2-1 @ 9.75% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-0 @ 7.63% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
3-1 @ 6.24% (0.016 0.02)
4-0 @ 3.66% (0.015 0.02)
4-1 @ 2.99% (0.015 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.55% (0.008 0.01)
5-0 @ 1.4% (0.0090000000000001 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.22% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
5-1 @ 1.15% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 2.33%
Total : 63.29%
1-1 @ 10.17% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 6.49% (-0.032 -0.03)
2-2 @ 3.99% (0.0050000000000003 0.01)
Other @ 0.77%
Total : 21.41%
0-1 @ 5.3% (-0.022 -0.02)
1-2 @ 4.16% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-2 @ 2.17% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
1-3 @ 1.13% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
2-3 @ 1.09% (0.002 0)
Other @ 1.46%
Total : 15.3%

How you voted: Sweden Women vs Italy Women

Sweden Women
72.0%
Draw
16.0%
Italy Women
12.0%
50
rhs 2.0
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