Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 40.85%. A win for Progreso had a probability of 32.27% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.55%) and 0-2 (7.38%). The likeliest Progreso win was 1-0 (9.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Liverpool would win this match.