Promoted Benevento's thus far impressive adaptation to life in the Italian top flight will be put to the test, as Pippo Inzaghi's men visit the Stadio Olimpico on Sunday evening to take on Roma.
The capital club will, nonetheless, consider this fixture a must-win if they are to achieve their optimistic ambition of challenging for the scudetto. They will surely be banking on securing all three points at home against one of the league's minnows.
Match preview
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Few would have predicted that unfancied visitors Benevento would sit above their Roman counterparts when the teams met in Week 4 of the Serie A season. However, former AC Milan and Bologna head coach Inzaghi has worked wonders at the club from Campania.
Sound buys in the summer transfer market, such as Monaco's experienced Polish centre-half Kamil Glik and Gianluca Lapadula - last season at relegated Lecce - have enabled Gli Stregoni to win two of their first three games since promotion as Serie B champions.
Last time out, they toppled Bologna, with ex-Roma man Iago Falque making his debut and Lapadula springing from the bench to replace injured Gabriele Moncini and score his first goal for the club.
Due to the disparity in the size and status of the clubs, there have been only two previous league meetings between them. In the 2017-18 season Roma rattled in nine goals during their two games.
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Roma will expect to take the initiative in Sunday's game too, but are unlikely to demonstrate such absolute dominance this time. Their win, before the international break, against Udinese was far from convincing and relied on a wonder-strike from experienced recruit Pedro.
That followed on the heels of a strangely disappointing 2-2 draw with 10-man Juventus, as the Roman side failed to see off their greatest nemesis once again.
The Giallorossi have since been bolstered by the belated return of Manchester United outcast Chris Smalling, now on a permanent deal. Their retention, too, of much-desired forward Edin Dzeko has been a major relief for coach Paulo Fonseca.
Benevento did ship five goals against Inter last month, so are by no means impenetrable. Therefore, this game should offer Roma a good springboard for an intense period of fixtures, continuing next week with the start of their Europa League campaign, away at Swiss champions Young Boys.
Roma Serie A form: DDW
Benevento Serie A form: WLW
Team News
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The home side have Javier Pastore, Rick Karsdorp and Nicolo Zaniolo (long term) missing in addition to Amadou Diawara, who tested positive for COVID-19 after his return from international duty with Guinea.
Otherwise, the side looks relatively settled. Antonio Mirante starts in goal after keeping Udinese at bay with some excellent saves last time out, while either Marash Kumbulla or Roger Ibanez should form the central defensive pairing with Smalling.
Pedro again joins Henrikh Mkhitaryan in support of attacking totem Dzeko.
For Inzaghi's side, Moncini's muscular injury against Bologna means that Lapadula will make a first start for the club up front, supported by fellow summer signings Falque and Gianluca Caprari.
Glik and ex-Bundesliga stalwart Luca Caldirola will helm the visitors' defence during what could be a 90-minute-long rearguard action.
Roma possible starting lineup:
Mirante; Mancini, Smalling, Ibanez, Santon; Pellegrini, Veretout, Spinazzola; Pedro, Mkhitaryan; Dzeko
Benevento possible starting lineup:
Montipo; Foulon, Caldirola, Glik, Letizia; Dabo, Schiattarella, Ionita; Falque, Lapadula, Caprari
We say: Roma 3-1 Benevento
Roma's greater firepower should prove enough for them to see off the plucky Serie B champions on Sunday evening.
Despite failing to consistently convince yet under coach Paulo Fonseca, their mix of experience and guile should prove enough. Established talents such as Pedro, Mkhitaryan and Jordan Veretout are all capable of capitalising on any drop in Benevento's momentum caused by the international break.
Top betting tip
Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home Win:data
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 48.32%. A win for Benevento had a probability of 28.54% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.95%) and 2-0 (7.1%). The likeliest Benevento win was 1-2 (6.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.53%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.
