Real Madrid will be bidding to return to winning ways on Saturday evening when they continue their La liga campaign at home to relegation-threatened Alaves.
Los Blancos are currently top of the table, four points clear of second-placed Sevilla, while Alaves occupy 18th position, four points from the safety of 17th position heading into the next set of fixtures.
Match preview
© Reuters
Real Madrid were so impressive in the early stages of 2022, as they put five straight wins on the board in all competitions, but the capital giants have now only been victorious in one of their last five, which was an unconvincing 1-0 home success over Granada in La Liga on February 6.
Los Blancos have shared the points with Elche and Villarreal in two of their last three in the league, which has allowed second-placed Sevilla to close the gap, with only four points currently separating the top two, so there is a lot of pressure on the home side to return to winning ways in this match.
Real Madrid will enter the match off the back of a 1-0 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain in the first leg of their Champions League last-16 tie on Tuesday night, meaning that they have work to do in the second leg at Bernabeu next month in order to progress to the next round.
Carlo Ancelotti's side first have three league games against Alaves, Rayo Vallecano and Real Sociedad, though, and will be determined to secure nine points during that run, as Sevilla are refusing to go away, with Julen Lopetegui's side the only other team in the title race this term.
The Whites have impressed at Bernabeu in the league this season, picking up 28 points from 12 matches, which is the second-best record in the league, and they will be taking on an Alaves outfit with the second-worst away record in Spain's top flight this term, having collected just five points from 11 games.
© Reuters
Alaves, as mentioned, currently sit 18th in the table, four points behind 17th-placed Granada, with the club facing a serious battle to retain their status at this level for another season.
A record of five wins, five draws and 14 defeats has seen them collect 20 points, while they are the lowest scorers in the league this term, managing just 19 goals, which is a concern as they battle against the drop.
Jose Luis Mendilibar's side will enter this match off the back of a positive result, though, having recorded a 2-1 victory over Valencia last time out, with Joselu's late penalty securing all three points in front of their own supporters.
El Glorioso have been present in Spain's top flight since 2016, finishing ninth, 14th, 11th, 16th and 16th in their last five campaigns, so it would be a slight surprise if they were relegated from La Liga this term.
Alaves have conceded eight times in their last two league games against Real Madrid, including a 4-1 loss in the reverse match back in August, but they incredibly won 2-1 at Bernabeu last season.
- W
- L
- W
- D
- W
- D
- W
- D
- L
- W
- D
- L
- D
- D
- L
- L
- L
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Aside from Mariano Diaz (pelvis), Real Madrid have no injury or suspension concerns heading into this weekend's contest, but head coach Ancelotti is expected to make a couple of changes to the side that started against PSG.
Indeed, Federico Valverde could come in for Luka Modric in the middle of the park, while Rodrygo is in line to replace Marco Asensio on the right of the front three.
Ancelotti insisted that Karim Benzema did not aggravate his hamstring during the loss in Paris, so the Frenchman should again lead the line, while there are unlikely to be any changes at the back, with Ferland Mendy coming through Tuesday's match with no issues despite his recent hamstring problem.
Alaves, meanwhile, will again be without the services of Ximo Navarro due to a knee injury, but the visitors are otherwise in strong shape heading into this match.
Having not played since Sunday, it would not be a surprise to see Mendilibar select the same XI that took to the field for the first whistle against Valencia.
Edgar Mendez and Pere Pons are perhaps the two players pushing strongest to come into the side, but Joselu should again lead the line, while Luis Rioja and Jason are likely to retain their spots in the wide areas.
Real Madrid possible starting lineup:
Courtois; Carvajal, Militao, Alaba, Mendy; Valverde, Casemiro, Kroos; Rodrygo, Benzema, Vinicius
Alaves possible starting lineup:
Pacheco; Tenaglia, Laguardia, Lejeune, Duarte; Jason, Escalante, Pina, Loum, Rioja; Joselu
We say: Real Madrid 2-0 Alaves
Real Madrid are in a need of a confidence-boosting win amid a difficult run of form, and we are fully expecting the home side to triumph this weekend. Alaves impressed against Valencia last time out and won at Bernabeu last term, but Ancelotti's side should have enough to collect all three points here.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 79.8%. A draw had a probability of 13.9% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 6.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.17%) and 1-0 (11.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.54%), while for an Alaves win it was 0-1 (2.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
