Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 81.42%. A draw had a probability of 12.3% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 6.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.48%) and 1-0 (8.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.85%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 0-1 (2.1%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Estoril Praia |
81.42% ( 0.34) | 12.35% ( -0.29) | 6.23% ( -0.06) |
Both teams to score 45.34% ( 0.88) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
66.93% ( 1.27) | 33.06% ( -1.28) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
45.2% ( 1.45) | 54.79% ( -1.45) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
93.84% ( 0.32) | 6.16% ( -0.33) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
76.68% ( 0.9) | 23.31% ( -0.9) |
Estoril Praia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
48.32% ( 0.77) | 51.68% ( -0.78) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
14.2% ( 0.5) | 85.79% ( -0.51) |
Score Analysis |
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Estoril Praia |
2-0 @ 12.36% ( -0.36) 3-0 @ 11.48% ( -0.12) 1-0 @ 8.87% ( -0.44) 2-1 @ 8.16% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 8.01% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 7.58% ( 0.09) 4-1 @ 5.29% ( 0.16) 5-0 @ 4.46% ( 0.12) 5-1 @ 2.95% ( 0.14) 3-2 @ 2.5% ( 0.09) 6-0 @ 2.07% ( 0.09) 4-2 @ 1.74% ( 0.09) 6-1 @ 1.37% ( 0.09) 5-2 @ 0.97% ( 0.07) Other @ 3.59% Total : 81.41% | 1-1 @ 5.85% ( -0.15) 0-0 @ 3.18% ( -0.22) 2-2 @ 2.69% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.62% Total : 12.35% | 0-1 @ 2.1% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 1.93% ( -0) Other @ 2.2% Total : 6.23% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 37 |
2 | Porto | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 9 | 27 | 37 |
3 | Benfica | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 8 | 26 | 35 |
4 | Braga | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 16 | 11 | 28 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 15 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 27 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 22 |
7 | Casa Pia | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 20 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 20 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 19 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 17 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 14 |
13 | AVS | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 13 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 12 |
15 | Nacional | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 12 |
18 | AroucaArouca | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 11 |
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