Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 38.17%. A win for Moreirense had a probability of 34.88% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.24%) and 0-2 (6.76%). The likeliest Moreirense win was 1-0 (9.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Rio Ave in this match.