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Premier League | Gameweek 17
Mar 13, 2024 at 7.30pm UK
Vitality Stadium
Luton Town

Bournemouth
4 - 3
Luton

Solanke (50'), Zabarnyi (62'), Semenyo (64', 83')
Smith (69')
FT(HT: 0-3)
Chong (9'), Ogbene (31'), Barkley (45+1')
Clark (30'), Ogbene (66')

The Match

Match Report

Bournemouth astonishingly fight back from three goals down to beat Luton Town 4-3 in the Premier League at the Vitality Stadium.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Premier League clash between Bournemouth and Luton Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bournemouth win with a probability of 57.33%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 21.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bournemouth win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.86%) and 2-0 (8.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.96%), while for a Luton Town win it was 1-2 (5.6%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bournemouth would win this match.

Result
BournemouthDrawLuton Town
57.33% (-0.034999999999997 -0.03) 21.57% (0.038 0.04) 21.1% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Both teams to score 58.25% (-0.131 -0.13)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.1% (-0.172 -0.17)39.9% (0.178 0.18)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.74% (-0.17899999999999 -0.18)62.26% (0.185 0.19)
Bournemouth Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.27% (-0.066000000000003 -0.07)13.73% (0.071 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.01% (-0.136 -0.14)41% (0.142 0.14)
Luton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.52% (-0.096999999999994 -0.1)32.48% (0.103 0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.99% (-0.11 -0.11)69.01% (0.116 0.12)
Score Analysis
    Bournemouth 57.33%
    Luton Town 21.1%
    Draw 21.57%
BournemouthDrawLuton Town
2-1 @ 9.89% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-0 @ 8.86% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
2-0 @ 8.79% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
3-1 @ 6.54% (-0.015 -0.01)
3-0 @ 5.82% (0.0029999999999992 0)
3-2 @ 3.68% (-0.018 -0.02)
4-1 @ 3.25% (-0.015 -0.01)
4-0 @ 2.89% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.83% (-0.014 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.29% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
5-0 @ 1.15% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 3.36%
Total : 57.33%
1-1 @ 9.96% (0.029 0.03)
2-2 @ 5.56% (-0.013 -0.01)
0-0 @ 4.46% (0.037 0.04)
3-3 @ 1.38% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 21.57%
1-2 @ 5.6% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-1 @ 5.02% (0.026999999999999 0.03)
0-2 @ 2.82% (0.008 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.1% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
2-3 @ 2.08% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.06%
Other @ 2.43%
Total : 21.1%

How you voted: Bournemouth vs Luton

Bournemouth
60.7%
Draw
24.7%
Luton Town
14.6%
356
Head to Head
Jan 15, 2022 12.30pm
Gameweek 27
Luton
3-2
Bournemouth
Kelly (30' og.), Campbell (42'), Naismith (90+6')
Marcondes (51'), Rogers (78')
Lerma (81'), Christie (89')
Sep 25, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 9
Bournemouth
2-1
Luton
Billing (17'), Solanke (31')
Pearson (49'), Lowe (90+2')
Burke (64')
Jan 16, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 24
Bournemouth
0-1
Luton

Billing (90+3')
Lerma (26')
Dewsbury-Hall (67')
Pearson (90+2'), Hylton (90+6')
Dec 19, 2020 3pm
Jan 4, 2020 5.31pm
Third Round
Bournemouth
4-0
Luton
Billing (8', 79'), Wilson (67'), Solanke (82')
Billing (41')

Jones (41')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool15113131131836
2Chelsea16104237191834
3Arsenal1796234161833
4Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest179442319431
5Aston Villa178452626028
6Manchester CityMan City178362925427
7Newcastle UnitedNewcastle177552721626
8Bournemouth167452421325
9Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton176742726125
10Fulham166642422224
11Tottenham HotspurSpurs1672736191723
12Brentford177283232023
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd166462119222
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham175572230-820
15Crystal Palace173771826-816
16Everton153661421-715
17Leicester CityLeicester163582134-1314
18Ipswich TownIpswich172691632-1612
19Wolverhampton WanderersWolves1623112440-169
20Southampton1612131136-255


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