Nations League | League A
Jun 14, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
Germany5 - 2Italy
The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Nations League clash between Germany and Italy, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Predicted Lineups
Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Germany could line up for Tuesday's Nations League clash with Italy.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Hungary 1-1 Germany
Saturday, June 11 at 7.45pm in Nations League
Saturday, June 11 at 7.45pm in Nations League
| Current League A3 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Italy | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 2 | Hungary | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Germany | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | England | 3 | -1 | 2 |
We said: Germany 1-0 Italy
While Italy have fared better than many expected at the start of their tricky transition from one generation to the next, they remain unconvincing in the final third and may not get on the scoresheet. Despite a lacklustre record in the Nations League so far, Germany are further ahead in their development by comparison, and they can find a goal from one of several tried and tested sources up front. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Germany win with a probability of 45.95%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Italy had a probability of 26.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Germany win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9%) and 2-1 (8.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.8%), while for a Italy win it was 0-1 (9.35%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Germany would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Germany | Draw | Italy |
45.95% ( 0.04) | 27.36% ( 0.01) | 26.69% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 46.43% ( -0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
