We said: Orlando City 1-0 New York City FC
Orlando City's disappointing home record, coupled with New York City's poor form on their travels, makes this a very tough match to call, but we expect the hosts to eke out a narrow victory.
The Lions managed to win their last match on home soil, while the Pigeons have recorded two draws and five defeats in seven matches, and there have been no recent signs of improvement.
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Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orlando City win with a probability of 44.48%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 29.58% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orlando City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7.9%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 0-1 (8.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.