We said: New York City FC 1-0 New York Red Bulls
Momentum may not be on the side of the reigning MLS champs right now in the domestic campaign, but it looked like they gained a lot of confidence from their Campeones Cup triumph in midweek, and we believe they will be able to carry that form into this weekend.
After clinching a playoff berth, we expect the Red Bulls might be a little complacent in this one, knowing that they have some breathing room in the Eastern Conference table.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 53.35%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 22.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.75%) and 2-0 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.24%), while for a New York Red Bulls win it was 0-1 (6.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
-3.78) 
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