Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Columbus Crew win with a probability of 64.49%. A draw had a probability of 19.2% and a win for Atlanta United had a probability of 16.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Columbus Crew win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.54%) and 1-0 (8.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.82%), while for an Atlanta United win it was 1-2 (4.55%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Columbus Crew would win this match.