Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 46.65%. A win for Columbus Crew had a probability of 31.48% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.79%) and 3-1 (5.72%). The likeliest Columbus Crew win was 1-2 (7.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.1%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atlanta United would win this match.