Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 44.63%. A draw had a probability of 28.2% and a win for Caen had a probability of 27.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.93%) and 1-2 (8.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.02%), while for a Caen win it was 1-0 (10.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.