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AJ Auxerre
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Ligue 1 | Gameweek 4
Sep 14, 2024 at 8pm UK
Parc des Princes
Brest logo

PSG
3 - 1
Brest

Dembele (42', 74'), Ruiz (73')
Beraldo (26'), Mendes (28')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Del Castillo (29' pen.)
Camara (39'), Ajorque (49'), Chardonnet (59')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Ligue 1 clash between Paris Saint-Germain and Brest, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Lille 1-3 PSG
Sunday, September 1 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Brest 4-0 St Etienne
Saturday, August 31 at 4pm in Ligue 1

We said: Paris Saint-Germain 3-0 Brest

Trying to get one over PSG has been a fruitless task for Brest for years, and Les Pirates' fortunes against the champions should not change in the capital this weekend, even with the hosts weaker in midfield than they were at the beginning of the month. Enrique's attackers have been scoring for fun and sharing the goals around so far this term, so another dominant win for the champions is the only outcome we can envisage. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 67.68%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Brest had a probability of 14.35%.

The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.67%) and 1-0 (8.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.2%), while for a Brest win it was 1-2 (4.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.

Result
Paris Saint-GermainDrawBrest
67.68% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04) 17.97% (0.038 0.04) 14.35% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
Both teams to score 57.11% (-0.146 -0.15)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.16% (-0.18600000000001 -0.19)34.84% (0.185 0.19)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
43.19% (-0.207 -0.21)56.81% (0.207 0.21)
Paris Saint-Germain Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.55% (-0.060000000000002 -0.06)9.45% (0.058999999999999 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
68.25% (-0.14 -0.14)31.74% (0.138 0.14)
Brest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.07% (-0.12 -0.12)36.93% (0.119 0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.28% (-0.118 -0.12)73.71% (0.117 0.12)
Score Analysis
    Paris Saint-Germain 67.68%
    Brest 14.35%
    Draw 17.97%
Paris Saint-GermainDrawBrest
2-0 @ 9.71% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
2-1 @ 9.67% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
1-0 @ 8.23% (0.055999999999999 0.06)
3-0 @ 7.64% (0.011 0.01)
3-1 @ 7.61% (-0.013000000000001 -0.01)
4-0 @ 4.5% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
4-1 @ 4.49% (-0.02 -0.02)
3-2 @ 3.79% (-0.018 -0.02)
4-2 @ 2.24% (-0.017 -0.02)
5-0 @ 2.13% (-0.008 -0.01)
5-1 @ 2.12% (-0.015 -0.02)
5-2 @ 1.06% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 4.51%
Total : 67.68%
1-1 @ 8.2% (0.029 0.03)
2-2 @ 4.82% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-0 @ 3.49% (0.033 0.03)
3-3 @ 1.26% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 17.97%
1-2 @ 4.09% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-1 @ 3.48% (0.021 0.02)
0-2 @ 1.73% (0.006 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.6% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
1-3 @ 1.36% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.1%
Total : 14.35%

How you voted: PSG vs Brest

Paris Saint-Germain
92.3%
Draw
3.8%
Brest
3.8%
104
Head to Head
Feb 7, 2024 8.10pm
Round of 16
PSG
3-1
Brest
Mbappe (34'), Pereira (37'), Ramos (90+2')
Mounie (65')
Magnetti (14'), Brassier (60')
Brassier (69')
Jan 28, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 19
PSG
2-2
Brest
Asensio (38'), Kolo (45')
Hernandez (26'), Mbappe (53'), Zaire-Emery (58'), Barcola (90+2')
Barcola (90+4')
Camara (55'), Pereira Lage (80')
Lees-Melou (32'), Lala (53'), Brassier (59')
Oct 29, 2023 12pm
Gameweek 10
Brest
2-3
PSG
Mounie (43'), Le Douaron (52')
Roy (0'), Brassier (86'), Martin (87'), Bizot (88')
Zaire-Emery (16'), Mbappe (28', 89')
Hakimi (87'), Ruiz (88'), Mbappe (89'), Kolo (90+4')
Mar 11, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 27
Brest
1-2
PSG
Honorat (43')
Soler (37'), Mbappe (90')
Sep 10, 2022 4pm
Gameweek 7
PSG
1-0
Brest
Neymar (30')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
OT
Buccaneers
30-36
Falcons
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG65102051516
2MonacoMonaco6510123916
3Marseille6411157813
4Reims6321108211
5Lille6312117410
6Lens624052310
7NantesNantes62319639
8StrasbourgStrasbourg6231121029
9Nice622214688
10Rennes621310917
11Lyon6213812-47
12Auxerre6204812-46
13Brest6204813-56
14Le HavreLe Havre6204713-66
15Toulouse612358-35
16Montpellier HSCMontpellier6114617-114
17Saint-EtienneSt Etienne6114317-144
18Angers6024412-82


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