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Walsall
Championship header 2

League Two
AFC Wimbledon
League Two | Gameweek 11
Oct 12, 2024 at 3pm UK
Kingsmeadow
Carlisle United

AFC Wimbledon
4 - 0
Carlisle

Stevens (8', 39', 50'), Harper (45+3' og.)
Maycock (6'), Harbottle (56')
FT(HT: 3-0)

Barclay (34'), Vela (60')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League Two clash between AFC Wimbledon and Carlisle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AFC Wimbledon

All competitions
League Two
Last Game: Crawley 3-4 AFC Wimbledon
Tuesday, October 8 at 7.45pm in EFL Trophy

Carlisle United

All competitions
League Two
Last Game: Carlisle 0-2 Wigan
Tuesday, October 8 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

We said: AFC Wimbledon 3-1 Carlisle United

 Considering that Carlisle are dealing with numerous injury absentees, it would not be surprising if Wimbledon were able to take advantage of the visitors' lack of cohesiveness. Additionally, the hosts have a strong record at home this season, and they should come into Saturday's match as clear favourites. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 44.34%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 29.44% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (8.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.

Result
AFC WimbledonDrawCarlisle United
44.34% (0.015999999999998 0.02) 26.22% (-0.078999999999997 -0.08) 29.44% (0.066000000000003 0.07)
Both teams to score 51.45% (0.281 0.28)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.18% (0.346 0.35)52.82% (-0.343 -0.34)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.56% (0.296 0.3)74.44% (-0.29299999999999 -0.29)
AFC Wimbledon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.29% (0.16200000000001 0.16)23.71% (-0.158 -0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.17% (0.229 0.23)57.83% (-0.226 -0.23)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.43% (0.227 0.23)32.56% (-0.22499999999999 -0.22)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.9% (0.255 0.25)69.1% (-0.25200000000001 -0.25)
Score Analysis
    AFC Wimbledon 44.34%
    Carlisle United 29.44%
    Draw 26.21%
AFC WimbledonDrawCarlisle United
1-0 @ 11.11% (-0.1 -0.1)
2-1 @ 8.97% (0.016 0.02)
2-0 @ 8% (-0.034000000000001 -0.03)
3-1 @ 4.31% (0.028 0.03)
3-0 @ 3.84% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-2 @ 2.42% (0.03 0.03)
4-1 @ 1.55% (0.017 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.38% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 2.77%
Total : 44.34%
1-1 @ 12.46% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
0-0 @ 7.72% (-0.105 -0.11)
2-2 @ 5.03% (0.040999999999999 0.04)
3-3 @ 0.9% (0.017 0.02)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 26.21%
0-1 @ 8.66% (-0.064 -0.06)
1-2 @ 6.99% (0.024 0.02)
0-2 @ 4.86% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.62% (0.025 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.88% (0.027 0.03)
0-3 @ 1.82% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 2.61%
Total : 29.44%

How you voted: AFC Wimbledon vs Carlisle

AFC Wimbledon
87.5%
Draw
12.5%
Carlisle United
0.0%
32
Head to Head
Feb 11, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 31
AFC Wimbledon
0-0
Carlisle
Sep 17, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 10
Carlisle
2-1
AFC Wimbledon
Guy (45'), Dennis (81')
Assal (59')
Feb 23, 2016 7.45pm
AFC Wimbledon
1-0
Carlisle
Robinson (53')

Comley (79')
Gillespie (50')
Aug 22, 2015 3pm
Carlisle
1-1
AFC Wimbledon
Ibehre (67')
Grainger (71'), Miller (76'), Raynes (92')
Barcham (36')
Osborne (88')
Jan 17, 2015 3pm
AFC Wimbledon
1-3
Carlisle
Akinfenwa (1')
O'Hanlon (16'), Rigg (56'), Amoo (94')
Grainger (71'), Young (87')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Walsall25184352232958
2Crewe AlexandraCrewe261210434221246
3Port Vale2612863227544
4AFC Wimbledon24134737191843
5Notts County25127641261543
6Doncaster RoversDoncaster2612773630643
7Salford City2512672921842
8Bradford CityBradford2511863427741
9Grimsby Town26122123741-438
10Chesterfield259883930935
11Bromley2581073531434
12MK Dons25104113937234
13Fleetwood TownFleetwood248973229333
14Colchester UnitedColchester2671273028233
15Cheltenham TownCheltenham2587103438-431
16Gillingham2493122225-330
17BarrowBarrow2577112328-528
18Swindon TownSwindon27610113341-828
19Harrogate TownHarrogate2784152338-1528
20Newport CountyNewport2475123243-1126
21Accrington StanleyAccrington2467113243-1125
22Tranmere RoversTranmere2567121839-2125
23Morecambe2555152240-1820
24Carlisle UnitedCarlisle2546151939-2018
> League Two Full Table


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