Already qualified for the UEFA Nations League quarter-finals with one game to spare, European heavyweights Italy and France will convene at San Siro on Sunday.
While the Azzurri continued their unbeaten run to stay top of League A Group 2 in midweek, Les Bleus were held to a home draw and must now win by two goals in order to finish first.
Match preview
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Needing only one point to secure a place in the Nations League's knockout phase, Italy met Belgium on Thursday night, when Sandro Tonali's early strike ultimately proved just enough to claim the Azzurri's fourth win in five games.
After surviving a couple of scares, Luciano Spalletti's side extended their undefeated streak since tamely exiting Euro 2024, having previously beaten Israel twice and drawn against the Belgians in Rome despite playing almost an hour with 10 men.
Following Spalletti's change of tactical approach and selection policy, La Nazionale had kicked off their campaign in early September, recovering from conceding a goal within 13 seconds at Parc des Princes to conquer old foes France in Paris.
As a result, Italy are safely through to the quarter-finals - scheduled for March - and can also finish first if they avoid defeat by two goals or more on Sunday.
Two months after their first competitive meeting with France for some 16 years, the Azzurri will now close out Group 2 by hosting their neighbours in Milan.
There is plenty of shared history between the pair, as Les Bleus prevailed in the Euro 2000 final before Italy famously won the 2006 World Cup decider on penalties - and the latest page will be written this weekend.
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Though France are also assured of a place in the next round, their November camp has brought many more questions than answers so far.
After a build-up bogged down in speculation about captain Kylian Mbappe's continued absence, under-fire coach Didier Deschamps was left frustrated on Thursday evening, as his side failed to capitalise on their dominance against Israel and were held to a 0-0 draw.
Adding to a sense of alienation, the game was played in front of a sparsely populated Stade de France amid security concerns, with scuffles breaking out between rival supporters in the near-empty stands.
Since losing 3-1 to Italy in their Nations League opener, Les Bleus had gone on to claim maximum points from their next three matches - including two wins against Belgium - but failure to perform against Group 2's rock-bottom team has now stalled that winning momentum.
Therefore, Deschamps must rely on his past record to demonstrate he is still the right man for the job: in addition to claiming global glory back in 2018, the former Juventus midfielder led a French victory in the 2021 Nations League.
Replicating the latter success next summer would perhaps quieten his critics as the build-up to the 2026 World Cup begins, but his first task is to topple a rejuvenated Italy in their own backyard.
Team News
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Italy may make changes, with progress already guaranteed, and that could include some rotation up front: Mateo Retegui has established himself as the Azzurri's first-choice striker this season, but Moise Kean is in fine form for Fiorentina and scored a Serie A hat-trick last week.
It remains to be seen whether Nicolo Barella will continue in his new role linking midfield and attack, and Daniel Maldini and Giacomo Raspadori are his most credible competitors after struggling Roma captain Lorenzo Pellegrini was dropped.
The hosts' injury list features Arsenal defender Riccardo Calafiori and Torino midfielder Samuele Ricci, plus long-term absentees Gianluca Scamacca and Giorgio Scalvini; Manuel Locatelli was drafted in to replace Ricci and will compete with Nicolo Rovella for selection in midfield.
Meanwhile, France are without Real Madrid's Kylian Mbappe for reasons that remain unclear, while Wesley Fofana, Ousmane Dembele, Loic Bade and Aurelien Tchouameni are all sidelined by injury.
AC Milan's Theo Hernandez may miss the chance to start on home turf at San Siro due to a knock, but Mike Maignan features in goal and Inter Milan star Marcus Thuram will vie with Randal Kolo Muani to lead Les Bleus' attack.
Kingsley Coman was called up to replace Dembele, who withdrew because of a thigh problem, and is in competition with Michael Olise and Bradley Barcola for places across the final third.
Italy possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Buongiorno, Bastoni; Cambiaso, Barella, Locatelli, Tonali, Dimarco; Maldini; Kean
France possible starting lineup:
Maignan; Kounde, Konate, Saliba, Digne; Kone, Rabiot; Olise, Nkunku, Coman; Thuram
We say: Italy 1-1 France
In spite of its high profile as a standalone fixture, this clash could peter out into a low-scoring draw due to the surrounding circumstances.
Both teams are already through to the quarter-finals - and Italy are in pole position to top Group 2 - so avoiding injury will be upmost in some players' minds before heading back to club football.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Jonathan O'Shea
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