With their automatic promotion fate now out of their own hands, Greece conclude League B Group 2 of the 2024-25 UEFA Nations League away to doomed Finland on Sunday evening.
The Pirate Ship lost their grip on first place in the section on Thursday with a 3-0 loss to England, while their Scandinavian hosts remain pointless and are already consigned to relegation.
Match preview
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While Greece boasted a 100% record in the Nations League after four matchdays, England coincidentally flaunted a perfect tally of four wins from four previous away games against the 2004 European champions before Thursday's encounter in Athens, where revenge was the order of the day for Lee Carsley's men.
Unable to replicate their shock beating of the Three Lions in October, Greece succumbed to an early Ollie Watkins opener, an unfortunate Odysseas Vlachodimos own goal and an exquisite Curtis Jones flick, while also ruing what could have been had Jordan Pickford not made a couple of top-class saves.
On account of their three-goal beating in midweek, which tipped the head-to-head record in England's favour, Greece's hopes of automatic promotion to League A are now out of their own hands as they sit second in the rankings, which would lead to a promotion playoff.
Simply put, Ivan Jovanovic's side must better England's result on the final matchday if they are to usurp the Three Lions at the summit once more, but their feats in Helsinki will prove inconsequential if Carsley's side overcome the Republic of Ireland in their final battle.
The Pirate Ship can certainly take solace from the fact that each of their last three away matches in all competitions has ended in victory - plus they have netted twice in all of those successes - and a pointless Finland outfit have nothing but pride on the line.
© Imago
A four-year stay in the second tier of Nations League football will soon come to an end for Markku Kanerva's whipping boys, whose mission to finally get off the mark in League B Group 2 ended in abject failure at the Republic of Ireland's Aviva Stadium on Thursday.
An Evan Ferguson header on the stroke of half time settled the contest in the hosts' favour, but in an episode that summed up Finland's Nations League campaign, Ireland goalkeeper Caoimhin Kelleher saved a Joel Pohjanpalo penalty before magnificently thwarting Robin Lod on the follow-up too.
Thursday's affair more or less epitomised the Scandinavians' pitiful run in this year's Nations League, and they are one of just two sides in League B still on zero points alongside Montenegro; no matter what transpires this weekend, they will be playing League C football in 2026-27.
As well as representing a fifth defeat on the spin, Finland's narrow loss to Ireland also marked their seventh straight game without a win since edging out Estonia in a March friendly, and it will be exactly 12 months to the day since their last clean sheet by the time Sunday's game rolls around.
November 17, 2023 was the last time that the Huuhkajat kept an opponent at bay - thrashing Northern Ireland 4-0 in a Euros qualifier - and September's 3-0 loss to Greece made it three defeats from their last four games against the former continental champions.
Team News
© Imago
Greece must make a change in midfield for the final matchday, as Slavia Prague lynchpin Christos Zafeiris is banned for an accumulation of yellow cards, but Dimitrios Kourbelis is back from a suspension of his own and could be a straight swap in the engine room.
Sunday's visitors came out of Thursday's loss to England unscathed on the physical front at least, and Jovanovic may very well consider an unforced alteration or two after making three changes before the hour mark in midweek.
Fotis Ioannidis - scorer of three goals in this year's competition so far - is pushing to displace Vangelis Pavlidis in the final third, while Liverpool's Kostas Tsimikas is facing competition from Dimitris Giannoulis for the left-back berth.
Finland have no disciplinary concerns to worry about for their dead rubber this weekend, but Kanerva was forced to bring centre-back Matti Peltola off on the 58-minute mark against Ireland due to a leg issue, and he has now withdrawn from the squad alongside the ill Rasmus Schuller and Viljami Sinisalo.
Daniel O'Shaughnessy could step in for the stricken Peltola in Helsinki, where Pohjanpalo and all-time top scorer Teemu Pukki will scrap it out to come into the attack.
The latter is just 13 appearances away from overtaking Jari Litmanen as Finland's most-capped men's player of all time, but he has earned just 77 minutes across his side's Nations League campaign so far.
Finland possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; O'Shaughnessy, Ivanov, Hoskonen; Niskanen, Kairinen, Kamara, Uronen; Lod, Pukki, Hakans
Greece possible starting lineup:
Vlachodimos; Rota, Mavropanos, Hatzidiakos, Giannoulis; Kourbelis, Siopis; Masouras, Bakasetas, Tzolis; Ioannidis
We say: Finland 0-2 Greece
Greece were not bereft of opportunities in the final third during their loss to England - they were simply outclassed by the more superior attacking unit - and Jovanovic's team should have no trouble flexing their muscles in Finland.
The relegated hosts could be forgiven for taking their foot off the pedal and conserving their energy for the return of domestic football, but even if Greece prevail as expected, it should not be enough to pip England to the coveted automatic promotion spot.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Ben Knapton
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