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FA Cup
FA Cup | Second Round Qualifying
Sep 14, 2024 at 3pm UK
Twerton Park Stadium

Bath City
2 - 1
Merthyr Town

Smith (11'), Frear (19')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Preston-Watkins (88')
Coverage of the FA Cup Second Round Qualifying clash between Bath City and Merthyr Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bath City

All competitions
Last Game: Chelmsford City 3-0 Bath City
Saturday, September 7 at 3pm in National League South

Merthyr Town

All competitions
Last Game: Merthyr Town 3-2 Cribbs
Saturday, August 31 at 3pm in FA Cup

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Merthyr Town win with a probability of 40.05%. A win for Bath City had a probability of 33.66% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Merthyr Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.57%) and 0-2 (6.94%). The likeliest Bath City win was 1-0 (9.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.

Result
Bath CityDrawMerthyr Town
33.66% (-0.059000000000005 -0.06) 26.28% (0.0090000000000003 0.01) 40.05% (0.047000000000004 0.05)
Both teams to score 52.91% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.3% (-0.052999999999997 -0.05)51.7% (0.049999999999997 0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.52% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05)73.47% (0.043999999999997 0.04)
Bath City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.9% (-0.061999999999998 -0.06)29.1% (0.059999999999999 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.98% (-0.076000000000001 -0.08)65.02% (0.075000000000003 0.08)
Merthyr Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.62% (0.0010000000000048 0)25.38% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.82% (0.0030000000000001 0)60.18% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Bath City 33.66%
    Merthyr Town 40.05%
    Draw 26.28%
Bath CityDrawMerthyr Town
1-0 @ 9.12% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-1 @ 7.72% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-0 @ 5.63% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-1 @ 3.18% (-0.01 -0.01)
3-0 @ 2.32% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.18% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
4-1 @ 0.98% (-0.005 -0.01)
Other @ 2.55%
Total : 33.66%
1-1 @ 12.5% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 7.38% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
2-2 @ 5.29% (-0.0059999999999993 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1% (-0.003 -0)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 26.28%
0-1 @ 10.12% (0.02 0.02)
1-2 @ 8.57% (0.0039999999999996 0)
0-2 @ 6.94% (0.015 0.01)
1-3 @ 3.92% (0.0020000000000002 0)
0-3 @ 3.17% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.42% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-4 @ 1.34% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-4 @ 1.09% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.47%
Total : 40.05%

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