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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ win with a probability of 48.61%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 27.32% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.4%) and 2-0 (7.91%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 1-2 (6.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ would win this match.
Result | ||
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Vitesse |
48.61% | 24.06% | 27.32% |
Both teams to score 56.94% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.05% | 44.95% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.69% | 67.3% |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.41% | 18.59% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.12% | 49.87% |
Vitesse Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.95% | 30.05% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.82% | 66.18% |
Score Analysis |
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Vitesse |
2-1 @ 9.51% 1-0 @ 9.4% 2-0 @ 7.91% 3-1 @ 5.33% 3-0 @ 4.43% 3-2 @ 3.21% 4-1 @ 2.24% 4-0 @ 1.87% 4-2 @ 1.35% Other @ 3.37% Total : 48.61% | 1-1 @ 11.3% 2-2 @ 5.72% 0-0 @ 5.59% 3-3 @ 1.28% Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.06% | 1-2 @ 6.79% 0-1 @ 6.72% 0-2 @ 4.04% 1-3 @ 2.72% 2-3 @ 2.29% 0-3 @ 1.62% Other @ 3.14% Total : 27.32% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 17 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 59 | 13 | 46 | 45 |
2 | Ajax | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 37 | 16 | 21 | 39 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 36 |
4 | Feyenoord | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 35 |
5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 32 |
6 | FC Twente | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 31 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 25 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 25 |
9 | Willem II | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 22 |
10 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 17 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 22 |
11 | Heerenveen | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 31 | -14 | 21 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 17 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 17 |
14 | Groningen | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 16 |
15 | Heracles | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 14 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 12 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 17 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 37 | -27 | 9 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 17 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 7 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |