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EFL Cup
Grimsby Town
EFL Cup | First Round
Aug 9, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
Blundell Park
Crewe Alexandra

Grimsby Town
4 - 0
Crewe

Waterfall (13'), Green (34'), Smith (56'), Wearne (86')
Amos (3')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Mellor (65')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Cup clash between Grimsby Town and Crewe Alexandra, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Grimsby Town

Last Six:
Last Game: Grimsby Town 1-1 Northampton
Saturday, August 6 at 3pm in League Two

Crewe Alexandra

Last Six:
Last Game: Crewe 3-0 Harrogate
Saturday, August 6 at 3pm in League Two

We said: Grimsby Town 0-1 Crewe Alexandra

 Crewe look strong at League Two level this season and will fancy their chances of overcoming a second-string Grimsby on Tuesday night. We are expecting it to be a tight match, as Crewe will also make a number of changes, but the visitors should have enough to progress to the second round. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Grimsby Town win with a probability of 45.09%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 29.78% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Grimsby Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.19%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 0-1 (7.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.9%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Grimsby Town would win this match.

Result
Grimsby TownDrawCrewe Alexandra
45.09% (-0.055 -0.05) 25.13% (0.012 0.01) 29.78% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
Both teams to score 55.12% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.87% (-0.034999999999997 -0.03)48.12% (0.031999999999996 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.71% (-0.031000000000002 -0.03)70.28% (0.028000000000006 0.03)
Grimsby Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.64% (-0.037999999999997 -0.04)21.36% (0.036000000000001 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.67% (-0.059999999999995 -0.06)54.33% (0.055 0.05)
Crewe Alexandra Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.09% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)29.91% (-0.012 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.99% (0.013999999999996 0.01)66.01% (-0.016000000000005 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Grimsby Town 45.09%
    Crewe Alexandra 29.78%
    Draw 25.13%
Grimsby TownDrawCrewe Alexandra
1-0 @ 9.86% (0.0019999999999989 0)
2-1 @ 9.19% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-0 @ 7.61% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
3-1 @ 4.73% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-0 @ 3.92% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.85% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-1 @ 1.83% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.51% (-0.004 -0)
4-2 @ 1.1% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.5%
Total : 45.09%
1-1 @ 11.9% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 6.39% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.55% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-3 @ 1.15% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 25.13%
0-1 @ 7.71% (0.013 0.01)
1-2 @ 7.18% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-2 @ 4.65% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.89% (0.004 0)
2-3 @ 2.23%
0-3 @ 1.87% (0.004 0)
Other @ 3.24%
Total : 29.78%

How you voted: Grimsby Town vs Crewe

Grimsby Town
38.5%
Draw
7.7%
Crewe Alexandra
53.8%
13
Head to Head
Apr 18, 2020 3pm
Crewe
P-P
Grimsby Town
Sep 7, 2019 3pm
Grimsby Town
0-2
Crewe

Hanson (49')
Lowery (46'), Kirk (91')
Powell (62'), Kirk (92')
May 4, 2019 3pm
Grimsby Town
2-0
Crewe
Davis (26'), Grayson (34')
Wright (62')

Sass-Davies (12'), Ng (19')
Oct 27, 2018 3pm
Crewe
2-0
Grimsby Town
Whelan (70'), Miller (77')
Jan 1, 2018 3pm
Crewe
2-0
Grimsby Town
Porter (12'), Walker (34')
Ng (11')

Woolford (34'), Berrett (56')
rhs 2.0
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