MX23RW : Sunday, February 2 01:00:03| >> :60:2349:2349:
DFB-Pokal | First Round
Jul 31, 2022 at 5.01pm UK
Sparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion
Mainz logo

Erzgebirge Aue
0 - 3
Mainz 05


Sorge (50'), Nazarov (61'), Danhof (74')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Kohr (41'), Burgzorg (70'), Ingvartsen (78' pen.)
Caricol (14'), Kohr (51'), Stach (55')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's DFB-Pokal clash between Erzgebirge Aue and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Erzgebirge Aue

Last Six:
    Last Game: Dynamo Dresden 0-1 Erzgebirge Aue
    Sunday, May 15 at 2.30pm in 2.Bundesliga

    Mainz 05

    Last Six:
      Last Game: Mainz 05 1-0 Newcastle
      Monday, July 18 at 3pm in Club Friendlies 1

      We said: Erzgebirge Aue 0-2 Mainz 05

       Though they lack match sharpness this early in the season, Mainz should have more than enough firepower to take care of business on Sunday. After tumbling the relegation trapdoor in May, their beleaguered hosts may take more time to recover. Read more.

      Data Analysis

      Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Erzgebirge Aue win with a probability of 39.37%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 36.47% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

      The most likely scoreline for a Erzgebirge Aue win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.49%) and 2-0 (5.79%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.

      Result
      Erzgebirge AueDrawMainz 05
      39.37% (0.031999999999996 0.03) 24.16% (-0.0019999999999989 -0) 36.47% (-0.026000000000003 -0.03)
      Both teams to score 60.81% (0.012 0.01)
      Goals
      Over 2.5Under 2.5
      58.31% (0.012999999999998 0.01)41.69% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)
      Over 3.5Under 3.5
      35.91% (0.013999999999996 0.01)64.09% (-0.01100000000001 -0.01)
      Erzgebirge Aue Goals
      Over 0.5Under 0.5
      78.71% (0.021000000000001 0.02)21.29% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)
      Over 1.5Under 1.5
      45.78% (0.033000000000001 0.03)54.22% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03)
      Mainz 05 Goals
      Over 0.5Under 0.5
      77.26% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)22.74% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)
      Over 1.5Under 1.5
      43.58% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)56.42% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
      Score Analysis
          Erzgebirge Aue 39.37%
          Mainz 05 36.47%
          Draw 24.16%
      Erzgebirge AueDrawMainz 05
      2-1 @ 8.58% (0.0039999999999996 0)
      1-0 @ 7.49%
      2-0 @ 5.79% (0.0040000000000004 0)
      3-1 @ 4.43% (0.0049999999999999 0)
      3-2 @ 3.28% (0.0030000000000001 0)
      3-0 @ 2.99% (0.0030000000000001 0)
      4-1 @ 1.71% (0.002 0)
      4-2 @ 1.27% (0.00099999999999989 0)
      4-0 @ 1.16% (0.002 0)
      Other @ 2.68%
      Total : 39.37%
      		1-1 @ 11.09%
      2-2 @ 6.35% (0.0010000000000003 0)
      0-0 @ 4.84% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
      3-3 @ 1.62% (0.0010000000000001 0)
      Other @ 0.25%
      Total : 24.16%
      		1-2 @ 8.21% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)
      0-1 @ 7.17% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
      0-2 @ 5.31% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
      1-3 @ 4.06% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
      2-3 @ 3.14%
      0-3 @ 2.62% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
      1-4 @ 1.5% (-0.002 -0)
      2-4 @ 1.16% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
      0-4 @ 0.97% (-0.002 -0)
      Other @ 2.34%
      Total : 36.47%

      How you voted: Erzgebirge Aue vs Mainz 05

      Erzgebirge Aue
      9.1%
      Draw
      0.0%
      Mainz 05
      90.9%
      11
      Head to Head
      Aug 18, 2018 5.30pm
      Erzgebirge Aue
      1-3
      Mainz 05
      Testroet (83')
      Rapp (34'), Tiffert (44'), Kalig (90')
      Maxim (31', 65'), Quaison (59')
      Maxim (28')
      Niakhate (3')
      rhs 2.0
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