DC United and Philadelphia Union square off in the MLS on Sunday evening looking to make quick headway up a congested Eastern Conference table.
While the teams currently sit in 10th and sixth-place respectively, they are within a win away of moving into second position in the standings.
Match preview
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When DC United got the better of New York City FC on matchday one, it appeared that the Washington-based side were set for a much improved 2021 campaign.
However, Hernan Losada has since witnessed his team lose four of their next five fixtures, the latest coming at home to Orlando City by a 1-0 scoreline.
While the Black-and-Red battled their way past lowly Chicago Fire in the previous match, Losada is struggling to take many positives from his team's recent performances.
The setback against Orlando ended United's two-match winning streak at the Audi Field, but Losada will be satisfied with their form on home territory.
None of the first-team squad have contributed more than one goal since the beginning of the campaign with only Edison Flores adding an assist to his record.
As far as Philadelphia are concerned, Jim Curtin will be content with how his players have started the season as they bid to replicate last year's success during the regular season.
That was a different story in April after three games without success, but The Union have responded by collecting seven points over the same amount of fixtures.
Just one goal has been conceded during that period with their latest outing seeing them record a 1-0 triumph over New York Red Bulls.
Cory Burke netted the decisive strike in that fixture, becoming the first player in the squad to score more than once in the MLS.
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Team News
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Jose Martinez is expected to return to the Philadelphia starting lineup after serving his suspension.
Leon Flach could drop out of a midfield four, while Jack de Vries is again expected to miss out through concussion.
DC United still have as many as seven first-team players on the injury list, restricting what Losada can do with his first XI.
Julian Gressel and Felipe both made an impact as substitutes in the last match, putting them into contention for a recall.
Ola Kamara could also be provided with his first start of the season in attack.
DC United possible starting lineup:
Kempin; Alfaro, Brillant, Hines-Ike; Gressel, Felipe, Moreno, Mora; Asad, Flores; Kamara
Philadelphia Union possible starting lineup:
Blake; Mbaizo, Glesnes, Elliott, Wagner; Martinez, Monteiro; Fontana, Bedoya; Santos, Burke
We say: DC United 1-3 Philadelphia Union
While just two points separate the two teams, we cannot ignore Philadelphia's current form and DC United's defensive record. With that in mind, we are backing a convincing victory for the visitors, who are building some momentum in the Eastern Conference.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 50.51%. A win for DC United had a probability of 25.47% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.63%) and 0-2 (8.48%). The likeliest DC United win was 1-0 (6.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Philadelphia Union in this match.
