CONMEBOL Recopa | Final | 1st Leg
Feb 24, 2022 at 12.30am UK
Arena da Baixada
Athletico PR2 - 2Palmeiras
We said: Athletico Paranaense 1-1 Palmeiras
Although they have home advantage for the first leg, we think that Athletico Paranaense will be unable to take a lead into the second leg, with Palmeiras currently enjoying a eight-game unbeaten run in meetings with Wednesday's opponents. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 44.72%. A win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 28.69% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.92%) and 0-2 (8.28%). The likeliest Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 (8.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Athletico Paranaense | Draw | Palmeiras |
| 28.69% | 26.59% | 44.72% |
| Both teams to score 49.92% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
