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Champions League header

Champions League
Atletico Madrid logo
Champions League | League Stage
Sep 19, 2024 at 8pm UK
Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
Leipzig logo

Atletico
2 - 1
RB Leipzig

Griezmann (28'), Gimenez (90')
Le Normand (10'), Gimenez (60'), De Paul (64')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Sesko (4')
Lukeba (39'), Baumgartner (49'), Henrichs (90+4'), Openda (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Champions League clash between Atletico Madrid and RB Leipzig, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions
Last Game: Atletico 3-0 Valencia
Sunday, September 15 at 8pm in La Liga

RB Leipzig

All competitions
Last Game: RB Leipzig 0-0 Union Berlin
Saturday, September 14 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Atletico Madrid 3-1 RB Leipzig

 Atletico have not lost at home to a German club in the 21st century, and enter the fixture high on confidence after another big win at the weekend over Valencia. Both sides are very strong in attack, with Antoine Griezmann and Alvarez facing up against Xavi Simons, Lois Openda and Benjamin Sesko, but home advantage and the Simeone effect could give Atletico the edge. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 49.36%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 27.75% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.87%) and 2-0 (7.18%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 1-2 (6.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Atletico Madrid in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Atletico Madrid.

Result
Atletico MadridDrawRB Leipzig
49.36% (0.484 0.48) 22.88% (-0.113 -0.11) 27.75% (-0.376 -0.38)
Both teams to score 61.43% (0.094000000000001 0.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.81% (0.256 0.26)39.18% (-0.26 -0.26)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.48% (0.269 0.27)61.51% (-0.273 -0.27)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.87% (0.26899999999999 0.27)16.12% (-0.273 -0.27)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.46% (0.494 0.49)45.54% (-0.497 -0.5)
RB Leipzig Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.24% (-0.128 -0.13)26.75% (0.124 0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.96% (-0.168 -0.17)62.03% (0.164 0.16)
Score Analysis
    Atletico Madrid 49.36%
    RB Leipzig 27.75%
    Draw 22.87%
Atletico MadridDrawRB Leipzig
2-1 @ 9.47% (0.026999999999999 0.03)
1-0 @ 7.87% (-0.023 -0.02)
2-0 @ 7.18% (0.045 0.04)
3-1 @ 5.76% (0.069 0.07)
3-0 @ 4.37% (0.067 0.07)
3-2 @ 3.8% (0.032 0.03)
4-1 @ 2.63% (0.055 0.06)
4-0 @ 1.99% (0.049 0.05)
4-2 @ 1.73% (0.03 0.03)
5-1 @ 0.96% (0.029 0.03)
Other @ 3.59%
Total : 49.36%
1-1 @ 10.37% (-0.07 -0.07)
2-2 @ 6.24% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-0 @ 4.31% (-0.052 -0.05)
3-3 @ 1.67% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 0.28%
Total : 22.87%
1-2 @ 6.84% (-0.069 -0.07)
0-1 @ 5.69% (-0.09 -0.09)
0-2 @ 3.75% (-0.073 -0.07)
1-3 @ 3.01% (-0.04 -0.04)
2-3 @ 2.74% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.65% (-0.038 -0.04)
1-4 @ 0.99% (-0.017 -0.02)
2-4 @ 0.9% (-0.007 -0.01)
Other @ 2.18%
Total : 27.75%

How you voted: Atletico vs RB Leipzig

Atletico Madrid
80.7%
Draw
12.6%
RB Leipzig
6.7%
285
Head to Head
Aug 13, 2020 8pm
Quarter-Finals
RB Leipzig
2-1
Atletico
Olmo (51'), Adams (88')
Klostermann (70'), Kampl (82'), Haidara (87')
Felix (71' pen.)
Lodi (62'), Gimenez (90+6')
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