Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boavista win with a probability of 40.1%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 32.2% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boavista win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.29%) and 2-0 (7.48%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (10.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Casa Pia would win this match.
Result | ||
Boavista | Draw | Casa Pia |
40.1% ( -0.11) | 27.69% ( 0.17) | 32.2% ( -0.06) |
Both teams to score 48.18% ( -0.52) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
42.47% ( -0.65) | 57.53% ( 0.65) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
21.68% ( -0.52) | 78.32% ( 0.52) |
Boavista Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.93% ( -0.37) | 28.07% ( 0.37) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.27% ( -0.47) | 63.73% ( 0.47) |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.98% ( -0.38) | 33.02% ( 0.38) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.39% ( -0.42) | 69.61% ( 0.42) |
Score Analysis |
Boavista | Draw | Casa Pia |
1-0 @ 11.77% ( 0.17) 2-1 @ 8.29% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 7.48% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 3.51% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 3.17% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.95% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 1.12% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.01% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.81% Total : 40.1% | 1-1 @ 13.04% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 9.27% ( 0.23) 2-2 @ 4.59% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.79% Total : 27.69% | 0-1 @ 10.26% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 7.23% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 5.69% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 2.67% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 2.1% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.7% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.55% Total : 32.19% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 18 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 51 | 14 | 37 | 44 |
2 | Benfica | 18 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 42 | 11 | 31 | 41 |
3 | Porto | 18 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 41 | 14 | 27 | 40 |
4 | Braga | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 19 | 12 | 34 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 31 |
6 | Casa Pia | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 27 |
7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 18 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 28 | 24 | 4 | 26 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 23 |
9 | Gil Vicente | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 22 |
10 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 30 | -9 | 21 |
11 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 20 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 20 |
13 | Nacional | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 19 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 16 |
15 | AroucaArouca | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 30 | -15 | 16 |
16 | SC FarenseFarense | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 15 |
17 | AVS | 18 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 15 |
18 | BoavistaBoavista | 18 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 29 | -16 | 12 |
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