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Wellington Phoenix
Australian A-League | Gameweek 19
Mar 4, 2023 at 2am UK
Westpac Stadium
Newcastle Jets

Wellington
2 - 1
Newcastle Jets

Elliot (40'), Zawada (45+6' pen.)
Ball (38')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Saito (51')
Buhagiar (35'), Duncan (41'), Jenkinson (86')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Australian A-League clash between Wellington Phoenix and Newcastle Jets, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Wellington Phoenix

All competitions
Last Game: Central Coast 1-1 Wellington
Friday, February 24 at 8.45am in Australian A-League

Newcastle Jets

All competitions
Last Game: Newcastle Jets 1-3 Western Utd
Saturday, February 25 at 6am in Australian A-League

We said: Wellington Phoenix 1-0 Newcastle Jets

 Despite the goal-laden reputation of Sky Stadium, Saturday's lunchtime match may be a cagey affair as two direct rivals in a fiercely competitive race for the playoff spots meet with the Phoenix, back on home soil for the first time since January, boasting a slight edge against this shot-shy Jets side. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 46.56%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 29.49% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.63%) and 2-0 (7.24%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (7.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Wellington Phoenix in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Wellington Phoenix.

Result
Wellington PhoenixDrawNewcastle Jets
46.56% (0.301 0.3) 23.96% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04) 29.49% (-0.253 -0.25)
Both teams to score 58.92% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.94% (0.046999999999997 0.05)43.06% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.54% (0.045999999999999 0.05)65.46% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)
Wellington Phoenix Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.32% (0.14299999999999 0.14)18.68% (-0.136 -0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.98% (0.23399999999999 0.23)50.02% (-0.227 -0.23)
Newcastle Jets Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.46% (-0.14400000000001 -0.14)27.55% (0.151 0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.94% (-0.189 -0.19)63.06% (0.197 0.2)
Score Analysis
    Wellington Phoenix 46.56%
    Newcastle Jets 29.49%
    Draw 23.96%
Wellington PhoenixDrawNewcastle Jets
2-1 @ 9.34% (0.025 0.03)
1-0 @ 8.63% (0.021999999999998 0.02)
2-0 @ 7.24% (0.05 0.05)
3-1 @ 5.22% (0.037000000000001 0.04)
3-0 @ 4.05% (0.046 0.05)
3-2 @ 3.37% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
4-1 @ 2.19% (0.025 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.7% (0.027 0.03)
4-2 @ 1.41% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 3.4%
Total : 46.56%
1-1 @ 11.13% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 6.02% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 5.15% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.45% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 23.96%
1-2 @ 7.18% (-0.043 -0.04)
0-1 @ 6.64% (-0.04 -0.04)
0-2 @ 4.28% (-0.044 -0.04)
1-3 @ 3.08% (-0.031 -0.03)
2-3 @ 2.59% (-0.015 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.84% (-0.027 -0.03)
1-4 @ 0.99% (-0.014 -0.01)
Other @ 2.9%
Total : 29.49%

How you voted: Wellington vs Newcastle Jets

Wellington Phoenix
84.6%
Draw
0.0%
Newcastle Jets
15.4%
13
Head to Head
Oct 22, 2022 7am
Newcastle Jets
3-1
Wellington
McGarry (4'), Dartsmelia (16'), Buhagiar (44')
Kraev (39')
Payne (11')
Mar 18, 2022 8.45am
Newcastle Jets
4-0
Wellington
Boumal (51', 63'), Mikeltadze (67'), Babalj (83')
Al-Taay (35'), Mikeltadze (77')

Laws (4'), Elliot (74')
Mar 9, 2022 8.45am
Wellington
3-2
Newcastle Jets
Sotirio (25' pen.), Waine (45+1'), Ball (88')
Laws (5'), Sutton (90+3')
Penha (42'), Boumal (63')
Jurman (24'), Siatravanis (40'), O'Doherty (76'), Murnane (83')
Dec 10, 2021 8.45am
Newcastle Jets
4-0
Wellington
Mikeltadze (32', 52'), Murnane (69'), Penha (80')
Thurgate (45')

Lewis (45+1'), Elliot (50'), Ball (78')
Feb 28, 2021 7.10am
Newcastle Jets
0-2
Wellington

Millar (52'), O'Toole (58'), Koutroumbis (76')
Ball (22'), Waine (53')
Laws (36'), Rufer (67'), Hemed (75'), Sail (90+3')
rhs 2.0
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