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Melbourne Victory
Australian A-League | Gameweek 15
Feb 3, 2023 at 8.45am UK
AAMI Park
Wellington Phoenix

Victory
3 - 1
Wellington

Fornaroli (32'), Brimmer (54'), Juric (90+1')
Fornaroli (70')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Zawada (13')
Elliot (25'), Surman (52')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Australian A-League clash between Melbourne Victory and Wellington Phoenix, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne Victory

All competitions
Last Game: Victory 1-2 Sydney FC
Thursday, January 26 at 7.45am in Australian A-League

Wellington Phoenix

All competitions
Last Game: Wellington 2-2 Perth Glory
Saturday, January 28 at 2am in Australian A-League

We said: Melbourne Victory 0-2 Wellington Phoenix

 Melbourne Victory are struggling massively right now, and while playing at home would normally provide a benefit to a team, that is not the case for them right now. The hosts have won just a single match in their own stadium this season, and because of that Wellington Phoenix should be able to claim all three points in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 46.6%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 28.71% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (7.75%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 0-1 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.

Result
Melbourne VictoryDrawWellington Phoenix
46.6% (0.0050000000000026 0.01) 24.68% (-0.113 -0.11) 28.71% (0.106 0.11)
Both teams to score 55.92% (0.44600000000001 0.45)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.23% (0.553 0.55)46.77% (-0.554 -0.55)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.97% (0.516 0.52)69.03% (-0.51599999999999 -0.52)
Melbourne Victory Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.86% (0.227 0.23)20.14% (-0.227 -0.23)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.58% (0.363 0.36)52.42% (-0.362 -0.36)
Wellington Phoenix Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.03% (0.361 0.36)29.97% (-0.361 -0.36)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.92% (0.433 0.43)66.08% (-0.43299999999999 -0.43)
Score Analysis
    Melbourne Victory 46.6%
    Wellington Phoenix 28.71%
    Draw 24.68%
Melbourne VictoryDrawWellington Phoenix
1-0 @ 9.67% (-0.157 -0.16)
2-1 @ 9.34% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
2-0 @ 7.75% (-0.071 -0.07)
3-1 @ 4.99% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
3-0 @ 4.14% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.01% (0.053 0.05)
4-1 @ 2% (0.03 0.03)
4-0 @ 1.66% (0.008 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.2% (0.03 0.03)
Other @ 2.85%
Total : 46.6%
1-1 @ 11.65% (-0.07 -0.07)
0-0 @ 6.04% (-0.142 -0.14)
2-2 @ 5.63% (0.061 0.06)
3-3 @ 1.21% (0.033 0.03)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 24.68%
0-1 @ 7.27% (-0.097 -0.1)
1-2 @ 7.02% (0.027 0.03)
0-2 @ 4.38% (-0.014 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.82% (0.038 0.04)
2-3 @ 2.26% (0.046 0.05)
0-3 @ 1.76% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 3.2%
Total : 28.71%

How you voted: Victory vs Wellington

Melbourne Victory
23.7%
Draw
18.4%
Wellington Phoenix
57.9%
76
Head to Head
Apr 29, 2022 10.45am
Victory
3-1
Wellington
D'Agostino (2'), Brimmer (68' pen.), Rojas (78')
Broxham (24'), D'Agostino (39'), Nigro (43'), Rojas (54')
Sandoval (26' pen.)
Wootton (13'), Surman (71'), Pennington (77')
Feb 9, 2022 8.05am
Wellington
1-0
Victory
Piscopo (74')
Ball (57'), Fenton (76'), Piscopo (90')
Mar 24, 2021 8.05am
Wellington
4-1
Victory
Hemed (11'), Ball (36'), Davila (62'), Lewis (68')
Fenton (74')
Kamsoba (76')
Traore (65'), Kruse (70'), Butterfield (90+1')
Feb 24, 2021 8.05am
Victory
2-0
Wellington
Gestede (45+3', 49')
Broxham (34'), Shotton (37'), Markovic (55'), Anderson (62')

Muratovic (18'), McGarry (25'), Fenton (51')
Mar 15, 2020 5.20am
Wellington
3-0
Victory
Davila (3'), Hooper (21'), Ball (55')
Devlin (10'), Rufer (66'), Steinmann (78')

Kirdar (20'), Roux (57'), Nabbout (86')
rhs 2.0
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