Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 39.83%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 37.12% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.25%) and 2-0 (5.24%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Wellington Phoenix would win this match.
Result | ||
Macarthur | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
39.83% ( -1.4) | 23.06% ( -0.26) | 37.12% ( 1.66) |
Both teams to score 65.09% ( 1.26) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
63.84% ( 1.54) | 36.16% ( -1.53) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
41.73% ( 1.66) | 58.27% ( -1.66) |
Macarthur Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.3% ( 0.04) | 18.7% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.95% ( 0.06) | 50.05% ( -0.06) |
Wellington Phoenix Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.06% ( 1.51) | 19.94% ( -1.51) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.91% ( 2.38) | 52.09% ( -2.38) |
Score Analysis |
Macarthur | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
2-1 @ 8.45% ( -0.23) 1-0 @ 6.25% ( -0.48) 2-0 @ 5.24% ( -0.4) 3-1 @ 4.72% ( -0.12) 3-2 @ 3.81% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 2.93% ( -0.22) 4-1 @ 1.98% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 1.6% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 1.23% ( -0.09) Other @ 3.62% Total : 39.83% | 1-1 @ 10.08% ( -0.28) 2-2 @ 6.81% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 3.73% ( -0.29) 3-3 @ 2.05% ( 0.13) Other @ 0.39% Total : 23.06% | 1-2 @ 8.13% ( 0.15) 0-1 @ 6.01% ( -0.17) 0-2 @ 4.85% ( 0.09) 1-3 @ 4.37% ( 0.28) 2-3 @ 3.66% ( 0.24) 0-3 @ 2.61% ( 0.16) 1-4 @ 1.76% ( 0.19) 2-4 @ 1.48% ( 0.16) 0-4 @ 1.05% ( 0.11) Other @ 3.21% Total : 37.12% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Auckland FC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 18 |
3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 17 |
4 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 14 |
5 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 12 |
6 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 11 |
7 | Macarthur | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 11 |
8 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 10 |
9 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 |
10 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 9 |
11 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 |
13 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 2 |
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