Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 46.74%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 30.18% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.44%) and 2-0 (6.63%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (7.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.37%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.
Result | ||
Adelaide United | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
46.74% ( -1.34) | 23.07% ( 0.01) | 30.18% ( 1.33) |
Both teams to score 62.53% ( 0.87) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.5% ( 0.75) | 38.5% ( -0.75) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.2% ( 0.79) | 60.79% ( -0.79) |
Adelaide United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.17% ( -0.21) | 16.83% ( 0.21) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.18% ( -0.38) | 46.82% ( 0.38) |
Wellington Phoenix Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.18% ( 1.23) | 24.81% ( -1.23) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.59% ( 1.68) | 59.4% ( -1.69) |
Score Analysis |
Adelaide United | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
2-1 @ 9.24% ( -0.14) 1-0 @ 7.44% ( -0.33) 2-0 @ 6.63% ( -0.34) 3-1 @ 5.49% ( -0.12) 3-0 @ 3.94% ( -0.23) 3-2 @ 3.83% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 2.45% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 1.76% ( -0.12) 4-2 @ 1.7% ( 0.01) Other @ 4.26% Total : 46.74% | 1-1 @ 10.37% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 6.44% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 4.18% ( -0.15) 3-3 @ 1.78% ( 0.09) Other @ 0.31% Total : 23.07% | 1-2 @ 7.23% ( 0.2) 0-1 @ 5.82% ( -0) 0-2 @ 4.06% ( 0.14) 1-3 @ 3.36% ( 0.21) 2-3 @ 2.99% ( 0.16) 0-3 @ 1.88% ( 0.13) 1-4 @ 1.17% ( 0.11) 2-4 @ 1.04% ( 0.09) Other @ 2.63% Total : 30.19% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Auckland FC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 18 |
3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 17 |
4 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 14 |
5 | Macarthur | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 12 |
6 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 12 |
7 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 11 |
8 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 10 |
9 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 |
10 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 10 |
11 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 |
13 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 2 |
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